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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Can't run with this 65

SubjectAuthor
* Can't run with this 65Timothy Chow
+- Rollout: Can't run with this 65Timothy Chow
`- Re: Can't run with this 65ah....Clem

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Can't run with this 65

<uca796$19u0$3@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12713&group=rec.games.backgammon#12713

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Can't run with this 65
Date: Fri, 25 Aug 2023 08:36:52 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 25 Aug 2023 12:36 UTC

XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Can't run with this 65

<ucfju6$16f16$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Can't run with this 65
Date: Sun, 27 Aug 2023 09:43:32 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <uca796$19u0$3@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 27 Aug 2023 13:43 UTC

XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Here again, I thought that risking getting another checker sent behind
O's broken prime was inadvisable, especially since I have a race lead
and my game plan is to escape my straggler safely. The trouble is that
the safe play of 11/6 11/5 leaves us with an inflexible position. We
have 10 checkers in the zone (not counting the checkers on the 11pt)
and we have the same number of home-board points as our opponent, so a
blitz has a reasonable chance of success.

In the variant, I have moved X's 6pt spare to his midpoint. This
reduces X's racing lead, so you might think it would make him more
willing to risk getting hit. But in the variant, he has only 9 checkers
in the zone, and 11/6 11/5 creates a flexible spare distribution.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.084
Player: 45.37% (G:24.57% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 54.63% (G:22.30% B:1.99%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.095..-0.073) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.115 (-0.031)
Player: 45.58% (G:21.68% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 54.42% (G:22.43% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.128..-0.101) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.188 (-0.105)
Player: 43.39% (G:15.66% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 56.61% (G:13.93% B:0.56%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.200..-0.176) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-Baa-BB-C--BbC---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| O X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 133 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 11/6 11/5 eq:-0.201
Player: 43.41% (G:14.94% B:0.43%)
Opponent: 56.59% (G:15.84% B:0.61%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.212..-0.190) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/2* eq:-0.243 (-0.042)
Player: 43.29% (G:16.20% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 56.71% (G:20.93% B:1.06%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.255..-0.231) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/5 8/3* eq:-0.261 (-0.061)
Player: 43.18% (G:18.30% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 56.82% (G:25.04% B:1.32%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.274..-0.249) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/6 8/2* eq:-0.263 (-0.063)
Player: 42.86% (G:17.47% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 57.14% (G:22.20% B:1.16%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.277..-0.250) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3* 8/2* eq:-0.264 (-0.063)
Player: 41.48% (G:19.91% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 58.52% (G:24.99% B:2.03%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.286..-0.242) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Can't run with this 65

<ucoq1a$2uck3$4@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Can't run with this 65
Date: Wed, 30 Aug 2023 21:22:52 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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In-Reply-To: <uca796$19u0$3@dont-email.me>
 by: ah....Clem - Thu, 31 Aug 2023 01:22 UTC

On 8/25/2023 8:36 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-Baa-BC-C--BbB---bbc-bbA--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O  O |   | O     O  O  X    |
>  | X           O  O |   | O     O  O       |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X  X           X |
>  | O  X        X    |   | X  X     O  O  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 125  O: 133 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

Whacking two is always worth a good look, but seems too lose here. Ahead
in the race, clearing the eleven and leaving no additional shots seems
thematic, so I'll do that.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

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