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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 65 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 65 to playTimothy Chow
+* Re: 65 to playah....Clem
|`- Re: 65 to playMK
`- Rollout: 65 to playTimothy Chow

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65 to play

<udsecp$256dq$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 65 to play
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2023 09:44:57 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Sep 2023 13:44 UTC

XGID=-B-BBdCBB-A----a-bbbbbA---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O X X X |
| X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: 65 to play

<udsj4j$2569q$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 65 to play
Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2023 11:05:55 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Wed, 13 Sep 2023 15:05 UTC

On 9/13/2023 9:44 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-B-BBdCBB-A----a-bbbbbA---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |       O     O  O |   | O  O  O  X       |
>  |             O  O |   | O  O  O          |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |    O             |
>  |                  |   | X  O             |
>  |             X  X |   | X  O  X  X     X |
>  |       X     X  X |   | X  O  X  X     X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 96  O: 150 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 65

Sixes don't grow on trees, so leaping the prime looks thematic...

....but leaving a double shot against the five prime seems very risky.

And the re-but is that if X plays safe here, O will easily move her
checkers into the outfield making it hard for X to escape later even if
he rolls a six to do so. I count ten rolls that miss, and those are not
great odds but seems better than sitting behind the blockade waiting to
lose.

22/11.
--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: 65 to play

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Subject: Re: 65 to play
From: mur...@compuplus.net (MK)
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 by: MK - Thu, 14 Sep 2023 08:51 UTC

On September 13, 2023 at 9:05:57 AM UTC-6, ah....Clem wrote:

> On 9/13/2023 9:44 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:

>> XGID=-B-BBdCBB-A----a-bbbbbA---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

> Sixes don't grow on trees, so leaping the
> prime looks thematic...

Not if you apply Tim's math "21^7 < 2^32 < 21^8".

Are you playing dumb or are you really dumb...?

MK

Rollout: 65 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 65 to play
Date: Fri, 15 Sep 2023 08:24:33 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Sep 2023 12:24 UTC

XGID=-B-BBdCBB-A----a-bbbbbA---:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | O |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O X X X |
| X X X | | X O X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

Jumping out with the 6 is certainly the right idea, but there are
two candidates for the 5: 16/11 and 6/1. The most important
difference between the two plays is that 16/11 leaves 24 shots
while 6/1 leaves 20 shots.

According to XG, after 22/16 6/1, O can take if she rolls 66 or
44 or 64, whereas after 22/11, O must pass if she misses. This
is a point in favor of 22/11, but it's not enough to compensate
for the 4 extra shots.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 6/1 eq:-0.081
Player: 47.21% (G:9.50% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 52.79% (G:11.68% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.090..-0.073) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/11 eq:-0.262 (-0.181)
Player: 44.60% (G:6.96% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 55.40% (G:9.68% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.267..-0.256) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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