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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10

SubjectAuthor
* 4pt vs 7pt 10Timothy Chow
+* Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10ah....Clem
|`- Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10Renan Moritz
`* Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10Timothy Chow
 +- Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10Renan Moritz
 `- Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10Stick Rice

1
4pt vs 7pt 10

<u8jkso$2u0t8$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4pt vs 7pt 10
Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2023 09:19:19 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 11 Jul 2023 13:19 UTC

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10

<u8jm4p$2u24e$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10
Date: Tue, 11 Jul 2023 09:40:42 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 11 Jul 2023 13:40 UTC

On 7/11/2023 9:19 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X        O  O    |   | O  O           X |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O           X |
>  |             O    |   | O  O             |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  | O           X  X |   | X        X     O |
>  | O           X  X |   | X        X     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 140  O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32

The bar point is already made, so presumably the question is whether to
break it to make the four. Or the five.

Making the five point leaves two blots and does nothing to unstack the
six point, so I'll discount that play.

U is thematic, since this is starting to look like a priming battle -
keep the bar, activate the runners. X is slightly ahead in the race so
running is in order. But the eleven checkers poised to rain down on X's
head make me nervous about that play.

Since it looks like a priming game, I'll keep the bar point, but U seems
to risky. D looks good, 13 in the zone to solidify the prime. I'll play
that.

13/10 13/11.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10

<aa1cb149-2b37-4521-8608-d412e404b467n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: 4pt vs 7pt 10
From: renan.m....@gmail.com (Renan Moritz)
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 by: Renan Moritz - Tue, 11 Jul 2023 14:08 UTC

On Tuesday, July 11, 2023 at 10:40:44 AM UTC-3, ah....Clem wrote:
> On 7/11/2023 9:19 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O X |
> > | X O | | O O X |
> > | O | | O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > | O X X | | X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 32
> The bar point is already made, so presumably the question is whether to
> break it to make the four. Or the five.
>
> Making the five point leaves two blots and does nothing to unstack the
> six point, so I'll discount that play.
>
> U is thematic, since this is starting to look like a priming battle -
> keep the bar, activate the runners. X is slightly ahead in the race so
> running is in order. But the eleven checkers poised to rain down on X's
> head make me nervous about that play.
>
> Since it looks like a priming game, I'll keep the bar point, but U seems
> to risky. D looks good, 13 in the zone to solidify the prime. I'll play
> that.
>
> 13/10 13/11.
>
> --
> Ah....Clem
> The future is fun, the future is fair.

The idea here is to make the 4th point.
This is thematic in this kind of position (big stack on the 6th point, not anything much better to do, position improves a lot if risk is rewarded)
I would play this without hesitation, except that here the O "6" that hits is not very useful anywhere else, and also X is not that interested in playing a prime game
Well since this is an Internet quiz - I made the 4th; but I do not think it will be a large difference and I can imagine a team partner dissuading me from playing it in favor of "two down" or such.
(BTW this is a great series, very informative, thanks so much)

Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10

<u8otil$3lhqh$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10
Date: Thu, 13 Jul 2023 09:18:10 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 13 Jul 2023 13:18 UTC

XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
back checkers.

1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X X | | X X O |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10
From: renan.m....@gmail.com (Renan Moritz)
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 by: Renan Moritz - Thu, 13 Jul 2023 17:40 UTC

On Thursday, July 13, 2023 at 10:18:16 AM UTC-3, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
> somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
> I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
> misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
> takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
> back checkers.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
> Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
> Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
> Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
> Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
> Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
> Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 1
> ---------
>
> XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> 1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
> Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
> Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
> Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
> Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 2
> ---------
>
> XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
> Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
> Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
> Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
> Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
> Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
> Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
*Now" I am always make the 4th

Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10

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Date: Tue, 19 Sep 2023 12:44:02 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: Rollout: 4pt vs 7pt 10
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 19 Sep 2023 19:44 UTC

On Thursday, July 13, 2023 at 9:18:16 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-b-B--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 146 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> XG says that making the 4pt is massively correct. O's sixes are
> somewhat duplicated, since she can make her 3pt with 65 63 62, but
> I think the main point is that the upside of making the 4pt if O
> misses is very strong, while giving up the midpoint with 13/11 13/10
> takes pressure off O's midpoint and also somewhat disconnects the
> back checkers.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.148
> Player: 46.28% (G:16.03% B:1.06%)
> Opponent: 53.72% (G:18.47% B:1.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.163..-0.133) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/5 7/5 eq:-0.283 (-0.135)
> Player: 43.38% (G:15.55% B:0.98%)
> Opponent: 56.62% (G:20.73% B:1.77%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.296..-0.269) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.306 (-0.158)
> Player: 42.72% (G:13.98% B:1.03%)
> Opponent: 57.28% (G:19.22% B:1.56%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.322..-0.290) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 1
> ---------
>
> XGID=-aaB--EBB---bB--ac-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 145 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> 1. Rollout¹ 6/1* eq:-0.187
> Player: 45.71% (G:17.16% B:0.79%)
> Opponent: 54.29% (G:19.57% B:1.38%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.201..-0.173) - [64.9%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.190 (-0.003)
> Player: 44.95% (G:17.33% B:0.93%)
> Opponent: 55.05% (G:19.19% B:1.60%)
> Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.198..-0.182) - [35.1%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---------
> Variant 2
> ---------
>
> XGID=-b-B--EBB---cB---c-dc---B-:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X |
> | X O | | O O X |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 32
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/22 24/21 eq:-0.136
> Player: 47.16% (G:15.33% B:1.22%)
> Opponent: 52.84% (G:19.83% B:0.72%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.150..-0.122) - [53.2%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 7/4 6/4 eq:-0.137 (-0.001)
> Player: 46.26% (G:17.19% B:0.92%)
> Opponent: 53.74% (G:17.76% B:1.31%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.151..-0.123) - [46.8%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/11 13/10 eq:-0.209 (-0.073)
> Player: 44.71% (G:15.04% B:1.17%)
> Opponent: 55.29% (G:17.86% B:1.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.225..-0.193) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

A lot of these problems can be simplified to 'where is the biggest stack, play from there'. The simplification will steer you wrong every now and again of course but overall it's the best way to go.

Stick

1
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