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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Play safe?

SubjectAuthor
* Play safe?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Play safe?ah....Clem
`* Rollout: Play safe?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Play safe?Stick Rice

1
Play safe?

<ubfpec$2qddt$4@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Play safe?
Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2023 08:01:15 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 15 Aug 2023 12:01 UTC

XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Re: Play safe?

<ubg88s$2t089$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Play safe?
Date: Tue, 15 Aug 2023 12:14:20 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
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 by: ah....Clem - Tue, 15 Aug 2023 16:14 UTC

On 8/15/2023 8:01 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |                  |   | O     O  O  O  O | +---+
>  |                  |   | O     O     O  O | | 2 |
>  |                  |   |                  | +---+
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |          7       |
>  |                  |   | X        X       |
>  |                  |   | X        X       |
>  |             X    |   | X  X     X  O  O |
>  |    O        X    |   | X  X  O  X  O  O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 71  O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 31
>

I've been dinged a lot for failing to hit is positions like this. O's
board is weak and there's a homeboard blot to shoot at.

8/4*

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Play safe?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Play safe?
Date: Thu, 17 Aug 2023 09:58:24 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 17 Aug 2023 13:58 UTC

XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

XG thinks that O's board is weak enough to justify taking some risk
to begin clearing our 8pt. But interestingly, while it is happy
with 8/5 6/5 or even 8/7 8/5, it hates 8/4*. I believe that the
reason is that even if O doesn't hit back immediately after 8/4*,
covering that blot is not easy, and even if we cover it, it is just
another point we have to clear. Playing against a backgame is quite
different from playing against a single anchor.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.205
Player: 54.93% (G:27.44% B:4.51%)
Opponent: 45.07% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.190..+0.221) - [69.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:+0.200 (-0.005)
Player: 54.94% (G:26.62% B:4.32%)
Opponent: 45.06% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.186..+0.214) - [30.9%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:+0.085 (-0.121)
Player: 51.73% (G:24.95% B:3.89%)
Opponent: 48.27% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.069..+0.101) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/4* eq:-0.047 (-0.252)
Player: 48.49% (G:25.12% B:4.81%)
Opponent: 51.51% (G:7.91% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.065..-0.029) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------cbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O | +---+
| | | O O O O | | 2 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 7 |
| | | X X |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X O O |
| O X | | X X O X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 71 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 31

1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.505
Player: 34.78% (G:17.58% B:3.27%)
Opponent: 65.22% (G:8.95% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.518..-0.492) - [97.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.522 (-0.018)
Player: 35.41% (G:16.98% B:2.93%)
Opponent: 64.59% (G:10.14% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.535..-0.509) - [3.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.539 (-0.035)
Player: 34.86% (G:16.61% B:2.37%)
Opponent: 65.14% (G:10.67% B:0.45%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.528) - [0.0%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Play safe?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Play safe?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sun, 24 Sep 2023 22:42 UTC

On Thursday, August 17, 2023 at 9:58:30 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------b-babb-:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | 7 |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X |
> | X | | X X X O O |
> | O X | | X X O X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 71 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 31
> XG thinks that O's board is weak enough to justify taking some risk
> to begin clearing our 8pt. But interestingly, while it is happy
> with 8/5 6/5 or even 8/7 8/5, it hates 8/4*. I believe that the
> reason is that even if O doesn't hit back immediately after 8/4*,
> covering that blot is not easy, and even if we cover it, it is just
> another point we have to clear. Playing against a backgame is quite
> different from playing against a single anchor.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:+0.205
> Player: 54.93% (G:27.44% B:4.51%)
> Opponent: 45.07% (G:1.83% B:0.07%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.190..+0.221) - [69.1%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:+0.200 (-0.005)
> Player: 54.94% (G:26.62% B:4.32%)
> Opponent: 45.06% (G:1.45% B:0.04%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.186..+0.214) - [30.9%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:+0.085 (-0.121)
> Player: 51.73% (G:24.95% B:3.89%)
> Opponent: 48.27% (G:2.60% B:0.08%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.069..+0.101) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/4* eq:-0.047 (-0.252)
> Player: 48.49% (G:25.12% B:4.81%)
> Opponent: 51.51% (G:7.91% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.065..-0.029) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-bbGaBD-B--a-------cbbb---:1:-1:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | | | O O O O | +---+
> | | | O O O O | | 2 |
> | | | O | +---+
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | 7 |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X |
> | X | | X X X O O |
> | O X | | X X O X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 71 O: 171 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 31
> 1. Rollout¹ 6/5 6/3 eq:-0.505
> Player: 34.78% (G:17.58% B:3.27%)
> Opponent: 65.22% (G:8.95% B:0.47%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.518..-0.492) - [97.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.522 (-0.018)
> Player: 35.41% (G:16.98% B:2.93%)
> Opponent: 64.59% (G:10.14% B:0.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.535..-0.509) - [3.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/7 8/5 eq:-0.539 (-0.035)
> Player: 34.86% (G:16.61% B:2.37%)
> Opponent: 65.14% (G:10.67% B:0.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.550..-0.528) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It hates 8/4* not only because of the difficulty of covering it when missed but that play leaves two blots in the ether. Playing with one blot against a four, even five point board can be manageable but if you have two or more floating around out there you're going to have a rough time even when the opponent has 5 checkers back.

Stick

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