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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: Snake eyes to play

SubjectAuthor
* Snake eyes to playTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Snake eyes to playTimothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: Snake eyes to playStick Rice

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Snake eyes to play

<ubnoam$8n80$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Snake eyes to play
Date: Fri, 18 Aug 2023 08:31:17 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 18 Aug 2023 12:31 UTC

XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Snake eyes to play

<ubt2qe$1bu5s$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Snake eyes to play
Date: Sun, 20 Aug 2023 09:01:01 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 20 Aug 2023 13:01 UTC

XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| O | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 11

I succumbed to the fear of getting attacked and played 24/22 8/6, but
Magriel's criteria all point to a bold play here.

1. Rollout¹ 22/20 8/6 eq:-0.717
Player: 30.37% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 69.63% (G:12.35% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.729..-0.705) - [99.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/5 eq:-0.739 (-0.022)
Player: 29.39% (G:5.65% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 70.61% (G:11.03% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.750..-0.728) - [0.3%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4 eq:-0.777 (-0.060)
Player: 28.99% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 71.01% (G:11.44% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.790..-0.763) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/7 3/2(2) eq:-0.797 (-0.080)
Player: 28.74% (G:5.36% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 71.26% (G:11.88% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.810..-0.784) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.835 (-0.118)
Player: 26.37% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 73.63% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.845..-0.824) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Snake eyes to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Snake eyes to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Wed, 27 Sep 2023 14:29 UTC

On Sunday, August 20, 2023 at 9:01:05 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BBBB-A---bD---cee--A-A-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O X X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | O | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 142 O: 115 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 11
> I succumbed to the fear of getting attacked and played 24/22 8/6, but
> Magriel's criteria all point to a bold play here.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 22/20 8/6 eq:-0.717
> Player: 30.37% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
> Opponent: 69.63% (G:12.35% B:0.26%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.729..-0.705) - [99.7%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/5 eq:-0.739 (-0.022)
> Player: 29.39% (G:5.65% B:0.14%)
> Opponent: 70.61% (G:11.03% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.750..-0.728) - [0.3%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/4 eq:-0.777 (-0.060)
> Player: 28.99% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
> Opponent: 71.01% (G:11.44% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.790..-0.763) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 22/21 8/7 3/2(2) eq:-0.797 (-0.080)
> Player: 28.74% (G:5.36% B:0.13%)
> Opponent: 71.26% (G:11.88% B:0.22%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.810..-0.784) - [0.0%]
>
> 5. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/6 eq:-0.835 (-0.118)
> Player: 26.37% (G:2.38% B:0.07%)
> Opponent: 73.63% (G:3.05% B:0.06%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.845..-0.824) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You made a play you hopefully wouldn't even consider at dmp? Figured you want to hear it lol

Stick

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