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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?

SubjectAuthor
* 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?ah...Clem
+- Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?Timothy Chow
+- Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?Robert Zimmerman
`- Rollout: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?ah...Clem

1
4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?

<uf6oe7$9sjt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2023 10:53:58 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:53 UTC

XGID=--b-bCCaDaA-aD---d-d------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X O O |
| O X O X O | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 191 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

O has 64 pips of timing. Is that enough? Should X give her more? If so ,
how much more?

Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?

<uf94s9$s8n8$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?
Date: Sat, 30 Sep 2023 08:38:33 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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In-Reply-To: <uf6oe7$9sjt$1@dont-email.me>
 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 30 Sep 2023 12:38 UTC

On 9/29/2023 10:53 AM, ah...Clem wrote:
> XGID=--b-bCCaDaA-aD---d-d------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | X O | | O | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | X O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X X |
> | X | | X X O O |
> | O X O X O | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 127 O: 191 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 41
>
> O has 64 pips of timing. Is that enough? Should X give her more? If so ,
> how much more?

I'd hit two with 13/9* 8/7*. The first order of business when
playing against a backgame is to form a prime. X has no prime
to speak of, and 13/9* 8/7* gives him excellent chances of making
a five-prime. If he doesn't hit, O might make some of those points
in X's outfield, which will be thorns in X's side. As for timing,
X should have the opportunity to slot the 3pt and maybe the 1pt in
the next couple of rolls, which will regain timing if O is forced
to hit.

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?

<bb9fd168-33ce-47b3-8450-5bc4215ec21fn@googlegroups.com>

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Date: Sun, 1 Oct 2023 09:39:54 -0700 (PDT)
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Subject: Re: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?
From: zimbrook...@gmail.com (Robert Zimmerman)
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 by: Robert Zimmerman - Sun, 1 Oct 2023 16:39 UTC

On Friday, September 29, 2023 at 10:54:02 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> XGID=--b-bCCaDaA-aD---d-d------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
>
> X:Player 1 O:Player 2
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | X O | | O | | 2 |
> | X O | | O | +---+
> | X O | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X | | X X |
> | X | | X X O O |
> | O X O X O | | X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 127 O: 191 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 41
>
> O has 64 pips of timing. Is that enough? Should X give her more? If so ,
> how much more?

I got curious about whether to hit two vs. hit one and complete a 5 prime. Hitting two is still right by a lot. I was surprised, but I think the idea is that your highly favored to make the prime next roll anyway, and in this case, putting more checkers back will leave O with little to avoid a crunch up front.

Bob

XGID=--b-cCCBBaA-aD---d-d------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X O |
| X X | | X X O O |
| O X O X X | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 125 O: 194 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 13/12* 13/9* eq:+0.506
Player: 64.44% (G:39.06% B:2.62%)
Opponent: 35.56% (G:4.81% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.035 (+0.470..+0.541) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds

2. Rollout² 13/9* 10/9 eq:+0.401 (-0.104)
Player: 62.47% (G:33.98% B:1.76%)
Opponent: 37.53% (G:4.57% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.027 (+0.374..+0.429) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 19 seconds

¹ 250 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 249 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Rollout: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?

<ufcmpq$2gkbt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-2 backgame - hit 1, hit 2, don't hit?
Date: Sun, 1 Oct 2023 17:02:47 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: ah...Clem - Sun, 1 Oct 2023 21:02 UTC

XGID=--b-bCCaDaA-aD---d-d------:1:-1:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O | | 2 |
| X O | | O | +---+
| X O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X | | X X |
| X | | X X O O |
| O X O X O | | X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 191 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 41

Timing is important criteria in a backgame, and O has barely enough at
64. Hitting gives her enough and hitting twice gives her more than
enough. I was wary of ceding too much timing to O, but not hitting
seemed too passive so I opted for the goldilocks play of hitting once.

XG strongly prefers the double hit, and doesn't care much which way you
do it.

Tim's observation that the double hit poises X to make a prime is well
received. I'll observe that hitting 0, 1, or 2 times all win about the
same number of games while the more times you hit the more your gammon
rate goes up. That's an important factor in backgames too.

1. Rollout¹ 13/9* 8/7* eq:+0.389
Player: 61.43% (G:35.74% B:2.43%)
Opponent: 38.57% (G:5.32% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.374..+0.403) - [70.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds

2. Rollout¹ 13/12* 13/9* eq:+0.382 (-0.007)
Player: 61.00% (G:37.35% B:2.74%)
Opponent: 39.00% (G:5.68% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (+0.363..+0.402) - [30.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 16 seconds

3. Rollout¹ 13/9* 10/9 eq:+0.321 (-0.067)
Player: 60.65% (G:31.42% B:1.79%)
Opponent: 39.35% (G:5.36% B:0.21%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.309..+0.334) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds

4. Rollout¹ 10/5 eq:+0.229 (-0.159)
Player: 60.17% (G:24.60% B:1.25%)
Opponent: 39.83% (G:6.36% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.217..+0.241) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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