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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Priming battle

SubjectAuthor
* Priming battleTimothy Chow
+- Re: Priming battleah...Clem
`* Rollout: Priming battleTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Priming battleMK
  `* Re: Rollout: Priming battleBradley K. Sherman
   `- Re: Rollout: Priming battleMK

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Priming battle

<ugbht1$371os$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Priming battle
Date: Fri, 13 Oct 2023 09:49:21 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 13 Oct 2023 13:49 UTC

XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

---
Tim Chow

Re: Priming battle

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Priming battle
Date: Sat, 14 Oct 2023 12:05:29 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Sat, 14 Oct 2023 16:05 UTC

On 10/13/2023 9:49 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |       O        O |   | O  O  O  O     X |
>  |                O |   | O  O  O  O       |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |    X             |
>  |                X |   | X  X             | +---+
>  | O              X |   | X  X        X    | | 2 |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X     X  X  O | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 98  O: 116 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 52

X is stuck behind a five prime and is not at the edge, while O has lots
of timing before crunching. And if she leaps out it's basically game over.

Seems like X's only chance is to make the full prime and hope for a 1
and a 6 or for O to roll big doubles. These are not great odds, but
making the three point while slotting the four looks like the way to
make the best out of a bad situation.

Note that if O misses and X covers O is still the favorite.

8/3 6/4.

Rollout: Priming battle

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Priming battle
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2023 09:23:30 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 15 Oct 2023 13:23 UTC

XGID=-aBA-DCCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

This problem (and the next) could almost have gone into the "Slot
to contain?" series, except that it's a priming battle and not a
containment game, plus the slotting play doesn't lock up the game
when it works. Anyway, there are three possible approaches here:
(1) hitting, (2) slotting, and (3) playing safe.

X's biggest problem is obviously his straggler, which needs to
leap O's prime somehow. Hitting has some merit, because it gains
a tempo. The trouble is that O will probably enter fairly easily,
and then X will have scant resources after that. For example,
his aces are duplicated to step up and make the 4pt. He could
very well be forced to expose another blot, which could get sent
back for a gammon loss.

Priming is a more promising idea, because if X makes the prime
then he will likely be in decent shape for several turns thereafter.
The question is, can he essay the slotting play of 8/3 6/4? In
the variant position below, in which I have shifted a spare from
X's 5pt to his 6pt, the rollout says yes. But in the given
position, a big problem is that X does not have many ways to cover
the blot if missed, and his aces are duplicated to cover and step up.

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq:-0.421
Player: 26.98% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 73.02% (G:9.55% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.428..-0.414) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 7/5 eq:-0.471 (-0.050)
Player: 24.74% (G:7.07% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 75.26% (G:9.65% B:0.38%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.477..-0.465) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 7/2 5/3 eq:-0.473 (-0.052)
Player: 25.64% (G:7.48% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 74.36% (G:12.29% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.480..-0.465) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/3 eq:-0.487 (-0.066)
Player: 26.54% (G:8.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 73.46% (G:16.30% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.493..-0.480) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 6/1* 3/1 eq:-0.503 (-0.082)
Player: 24.30% (G:6.99% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 75.70% (G:11.45% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.509..-0.497) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/4 eq:-0.563 (-0.142)
Player: 23.91% (G:7.76% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 76.09% (G:18.20% B:0.62%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.570..-0.557) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aBA-CDCA---b--a--bcbbb-A-:1:1:1:52:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O X |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 99 O: 116 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 52

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 6/4 eq:-0.402
Player: 29.52% (G:10.28% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 70.48% (G:18.08% B:0.57%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.410..-0.394) - [98.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/3 7/5 eq:-0.414 (-0.012)
Player: 26.55% (G:8.04% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 73.45% (G:9.94% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.421..-0.408) - [1.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 6/1* 5/3 eq:-0.421 (-0.019)
Player: 29.00% (G:9.67% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 71.00% (G:16.83% B:0.82%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.428..-0.414) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/1* 3/1 eq:-0.426 (-0.024)
Player: 27.17% (G:8.26% B:0.07%)
Opponent: 72.83% (G:11.70% B:0.40%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.432..-0.420) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/3 eq:-0.468 (-0.065)
Player: 24.93% (G:7.57% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 75.07% (G:10.90% B:0.39%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.474..-0.462) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Priming battle

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Priming battle
From: mur...@compuplus.net (MK)
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 by: MK - Mon, 16 Oct 2023 07:33 UTC

On October 15, 2023 at 7:23:37 AM UTC-6, Timothy Chow wrote:

Yo! "Tim The Math-Giver", your ex-boyfriend
seems to be jalous of your newly-found anal
dildo, helping you spam RGB in daily duets
of idiotic position analyses... You may want
to give him some attention for the old times'
sake but be careful to not end up as a "math
fish" trophy mounted on some wall again... ;)

MK

Re: Rollout: Priming battle

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From: bks...@panix.com (Bradley K. Sherman)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Priming battle
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2023 10:44:31 -0000 (UTC)
Organization: RNA + Sunlight
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 by: Bradley K. Sherman - Mon, 16 Oct 2023 10:44 UTC

MK <murat@compuplus.net> wrote:
> ...

FFS, Murat, why don't you log out and take a long walk?

--bks

Re: Rollout: Priming battle

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Priming battle
From: mur...@compuplus.net (MK)
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 by: MK - Tue, 17 Oct 2023 07:56 UTC

On October 16, 2023 at 4:44:33 AM UTC-6, Bradley K. Sherman wrote:

> MK <mu...@compuplus.net> wrote:

> FFS, Murat, why don't you log out and take a long walk?

I walk away from RGB on most days,
finding nothing worth reading and/or
responding to and I feel I should be
allowed to post a few times a month
when Tim, A.H. Clem and Stick have
been spamming RGB several times
each and every day.

If you weren't a shit-licking, mother-
loving member of the sick dog pack,
you would have advised them long
ago to log out and take a long walk...

MK

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