Shun Lü
Lives in Hong Kong (2009–present)Wed

Is China now reevaluating their military strategy against the West given
how abysmal Russia is doing in Ukraine?
This is a good question, even if the person asking it has no idea what’s
actually happening on the ground in Ukraine…

Let’s talk about the most important lesson of this war so far: Flying
lawnmowers are surprisingly effective.

While the Redditors simp for the Javelin, a weapon without a single
confirmed kill cam, the people who matter are focusing on the Turkish
TB-2 Bayraktar.

BAYRAKTAR TB2: Turkish drone steals spotlight
last day of Doha’s defence expo DimDex has highlighted Turkey as a key
player in military exports. And no other weapon demonstrates Turkey’s
growth in effective weapons systems, like the Barayktar …
https://massive.news/2022/03/23/bayraktar-tb2-turkish-drone-steals-spotlight/
Before the war, some online derided this slow, small, and surprisingly
loud Turkish drone as a “flying lawnmower”, but now we all know that
flying lawnmowers are no joke.

Drones were also used extensively in the Armenia-Azerbaijan War of 2020,
but their performance was discounted due to the poor state of Armenian
air defense. The thinking went that a modern military with modern radars
would not have issues with them. The war in Ukraine has laid rest to
this theory.

The effectiveness of this drone is shocking and acknowledged by both
sides (unlike the Javelin). Russian troops have learned to fear the TB-2
more than most other Ukrainian weapons.

So why are these things so damn effective?

Small and mostly plastic: Radar has real issues with picking up
non-metallic objects. Small non-metallic objects are ever harder to pick
up. Even if the radar technically detects them, the operator has a hard
time distinguishing them from background scatter. So in that sense, the
TB-2 is a “stealth” drone, despite being 1/50th the price of a F-35, not
counting the pilot.
Drone pilots get infinite respawns. A good traditional pilot only gets a
few chances to make mistakes. Unlike video games, real life does not
allow respawns. Operating a drone, though, is basically just video
gaming IRL. If they’re shot down, the operator learns from their
mistake, and does better next time. Real pilots just die, taking their
lesson with them to see Saint Pete.
Rugged, low maintenance, can take off from crappy runways. Being slow,
the TB-2 has a much lower wingload than most modern fighters. This means
it can take off in a relatively shorter distance at slower speeds,
allowing it to be used on bad airstrips with repaired damage.
The drone is cheaper than most SAMs that can touch it. Not the SAM
launcher and radar, but the actual missile itself. Yes, the missile
fired to destroy the drone is often more expensive than the drone. So in
other words, if the Ukrainians can get the drone airborne, they can’t
lose money on it, even if it kills not a single Russians tank or soldier.
Unlike the MiG-29s that Ukraine has been denied, it continues to receive
shipments of TB-2 from Turkey:

Ukraine conflict: Turkey airlifts additional TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine
Turkey has airlifted additional Baykar Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat
aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Ukraine.
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/ukraine-conflict-turkey-airlifts-additional-tb2-ucavs-to-ukraine
So while these little buggers can’t contest Russian air superiority,
they don’t really need to. They’re so low-cost that the Ukrainians can
just send them up and hope for the best.

What does this mean for Taiwan?

If I were Taiwan, I’d be pawning the presidential china to buy as many
flying lawnmowers as possible. They don’t have to be TB-2 (since I doubt
that Turkey will sell them to Taiwan), anything similar will do — small,
cheap, and disposable.

Taiwan Unveils New Long-Endurance Drone, New Weapons at Defense Trade Show
Taiwan showcases new weapons systems, including an indigenously produced
long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle
https://thediplomat.com/2015/08/taiwan-unveils-new-long-endurance-drone-new-weapons-at-defense-trade-show/
Taiwan already has some indigenous designs, but they’re mostly just
derivations of the American Reaper. They’re also meant more for
surveillance than ground strike. It’s unclear how many of them are in
operation, but I suspect that following this war, there will be more.

What Taiwan really needs is something like the TB-2. It’s likely that
they will have to procure it domestically as the Americans don’t have a
comparable product to sell them, and not many other countries are
willing to risk China’s ire.

—

For China’s part, drone and anti-drone warfare are already the hottest
thing.

Last year at the Zhuhai Air Show 2021, most of the big stars were drones:

WL-10, an upgrade to the commercially successful and combat proven WL-II

WZ-8, basically an unmanned U-2 spy drone

The CH-7, a dedicated stealth bomber model

—

And it’s not just restricted to aerial drones, ground based and seaborne
drones were also on display.

Concerning to Taiwan and the US would be the swarms of drone boats meant
to attack larger vessels near coastal waters:

Could Chinese Unmanned Boat Swarms Defend the South China Sea?
A video shows China testing a fleet of small, unmanned boats being used
to defend harbors and intercept enemy vessels.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/could-chinese-unmanned-boat-swarms-defend-south-china-sea-196911
Suffice it to say, that China has the most diverse and wide-ranging
drone program in the world at the moment, despite the Americans’ early lead.

Just like the TB-2, Chinese drones have seen extensive action in real wars.

Chinese Drones Are Going to War All Over the Middle East and Africa
And killing lots of people.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinese-drones-are-going-war-all-over-middle-east-and-africa-74246
In some engagements, both sides are using Chinese drones.

This combat experience produces important data and teachable moments in
how to design even deadlier and more efficient drones going forward,
something that Taiwan doesn’t have access to.

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