novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon

Priming battle 3

<uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12960&group=rec.games.backgammon#12960

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Priming battle 3
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2023 09:24:13 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 22
Message-ID: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2023 13:24:14 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="7e1718db73ae8db452ef54b8da33ab44";
logging-data="563773"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19IVgQUVTjIJy9T0yfO0KsVWu85qUNgE3s="
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:Ey+DMQRM9xnS3/cGuIFO8V/Vyf8=
Content-Language: en-US

by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 15 Oct 2023 13:24 UTC

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

---
Tim Chow

Re: Priming battle 3

<ugmb9e$32090$1@dont-email.me>

copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12971&group=rec.games.backgammon#12971

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Priming battle 3
Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2023 12:03:59 -0400
Organization: The Future Fair
Lines: 36
Message-ID: <ugmb9e$32090$1@dont-email.me>
References: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2023 16:03:58 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="07b4f583af3fde0b4a2bc159849a97c2";
logging-data="3211552"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX19uXp/i94wkABQY8a3FFjE9"
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:4pgrLjJd1PuGUaJvF7TvE/FCES8=
Content-Language: en-US
In-Reply-To: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>

by: ah....Clem - Tue, 17 Oct 2023 16:03 UTC

On 10/15/2023 9:24 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> |             O O |   | O O O X X    |
> |             O O |   | O O O X       |
> |             O    |   | O O             |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |BAR|                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                  |   |                  |
> |                X |   | X X X X       |
> |       X     X X |   | X X X X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 63

Sixes don't grow on trees so it's tempting to use this one to leap out
to the 13 point. Yes, that gives O a lot of good rolls, but if X stays
on the anchor his blockade will crunch soon.

Maybe O is in more danger of crunching, which would tip it towards
simply tidying up with 10/4 8/5. X wants O to crunch, so hitting seems
antipositional.

10/4 8/5 without much conviction.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Rollout: Priming battle 3

<ugojv4$3les9$1@dont-email.me>

copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12972&group=rec.games.backgammon#12972

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!news.furie.org.uk!usenet.goja.nl.eu.org!3.eu.feeder.erje.net!feeder.erje.net!news2.arglkargh.de!news.mixmin.net!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Priming battle 3
Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 08:44:20 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 122
Message-ID: <ugojv4$3les9$1@dont-email.me>
References: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 12:44:20 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="3d56137e5aef947fab1ee70bf4db1f5d";
logging-data="3849097"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1+GvqA38CTHTaZUjtpGyJEO8r2DSuZvCFE="
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:0htbRO642eN0AV6Cm3F0Q2323pI=
In-Reply-To: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
Content-Language: en-US

by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 18 Oct 2023 12:44 UTC

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X's timing is slightly worse than O's, so that suggests jumping out
despite the risk of getting gammoned. The rollout confirms this, but
see also the two variants below for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.051
Player: 50.48% (G:15.73% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 49.52% (G:20.48% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.065..-0.037) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.135 (-0.084)
Player: 46.65% (G:14.71% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 53.35% (G:17.22% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.150..-0.120) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.042
Player: 49.95% (G:16.22% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 50.05% (G:19.85% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.058..-0.026) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.094 (-0.052)
Player: 47.47% (G:15.13% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 52.53% (G:16.53% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.109..-0.079) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------bbcccB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 122 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:+0.086
Player: 52.09% (G:16.65% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 47.91% (G:15.64% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.079..+0.094) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:+0.027 (-0.059)
Player: 53.08% (G:16.53% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 46.92% (G:21.29% B:1.64%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.019..+0.035) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Priming battle 3

<ugojmb$3le3h$1@dont-email.me>

copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=12974&group=rec.games.backgammon#12974

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

Path: i2pn2.org!rocksolid2!news.neodome.net!news.mixmin.net!eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Priming battle 3
Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 08:39:37 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 162
Message-ID: <ugojmb$3le3h$1@dont-email.me>
References: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
Injection-Date: Wed, 18 Oct 2023 12:39:39 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="3d56137e5aef947fab1ee70bf4db1f5d";
logging-data="3848305"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX18WkbRqWcwXUQ0rz2LyQlh1mPZ5rAxplb0="
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:eWiFW5gMWe5L/SAiLqsznt2cFIg=
In-Reply-To: <uggp5u$h6ht$2@dont-email.me>
Content-Language: en-US

by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 18 Oct 2023 12:39 UTC

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

X's timing is slightly worse than O's, so that suggests jumping out
despite the gammon risk. The rollouts below recommend 22/16 8/5
even at gammon save. But see the two variants for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.051
Player: 50.48% (G:15.73% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 49.52% (G:20.48% B:1.55%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.065..-0.037) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.135 (-0.084)
Player: 46.65% (G:14.71% B:0.70%)
Opponent: 53.35% (G:17.22% B:0.79%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.150..-0.120) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-----------
Gammon save
-----------

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbBA--:0:0:1:63:1:0:1:2:10

Score is X:1 O:0 2 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O X X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X X | | X X X X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 135 O: 126 X-O: 1-0/2 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.401
Player: 50.55% (G:16.98% B:2.22%)
Opponent: 49.45% (G:20.62% B:2.94%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.410..-0.393) - [98.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.414 (-0.013)
Player: 46.76% (G:15.01% B:2.35%)
Opponent: 53.24% (G:17.47% B:2.50%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.422..-0.406) - [1.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------cbccbB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:-0.042
Player: 49.95% (G:16.22% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 50.05% (G:19.85% B:1.50%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.058..-0.026) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:-0.094 (-0.052)
Player: 47.47% (G:15.13% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 52.53% (G:16.53% B:0.84%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.109..-0.079) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-aaBBBBBA-A------bbcccB-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

1. Rollout¹ 10/7 8/2* eq:+0.086
Player: 52.09% (G:16.65% B:0.92%)
Opponent: 47.91% (G:15.64% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.079..+0.094) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/16 8/5 eq:+0.027 (-0.059)
Player: 53.08% (G:16.53% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 46.92% (G:21.29% B:1.64%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.019..+0.035) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

On a clear disk you can seek forever.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Priming battle 3

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Priming battle 3

Subject	Author
Priming battle 3	Timothy Chow
Re: Priming battle 3	ah....Clem
Rollout: Priming battle 3	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Priming battle 3	Timothy Chow