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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 4pt or hit?

SubjectAuthor
* 4pt or hit?Timothy Chow
+- Rollout: 4pt or hit?Timothy Chow
`- Re: 4pt or hit?ah...Clem

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4pt or hit?

<uh5qkq$352a2$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4pt or hit?
Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2023 08:58:02 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 23 Oct 2023 12:58 UTC

XGID=-aB--BCBA-A-b--C-babAbabb-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 4pt or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4pt or hit?
Date: Wed, 25 Oct 2023 22:39:05 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 26 Oct 2023 02:39 UTC

XGID=-aB--BCBA-A-b--C-babAbabb-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

The top three plays in the rollout below are closer in equity than in
most of the problems I post here, but I didn't play any of them, opting
instead for 20/18* 15/9. Evidently, that's too loose a play. Have a
look at the variant for comparison.

1. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.477
Player: 61.25% (G:16.51% B:1.05%)
Opponent: 38.75% (G:18.44% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.463..+0.491) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/18* 8/2 eq:+0.444 (-0.032)
Player: 58.08% (G:19.99% B:0.93%)
Opponent: 41.92% (G:17.69% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.434..+0.454) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/18* 7/1* eq:+0.439 (-0.037)
Player: 58.36% (G:31.60% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 41.64% (G:24.81% B:2.92%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.429..+0.450) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/18* 15/9 eq:+0.374 (-0.103)
Player: 58.72% (G:23.40% B:1.45%)
Opponent: 41.28% (G:23.93% B:1.77%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.365..+0.382) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aB--BCBA-A-b---CbabAbabb-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X O O O O |
| X O | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 20/18* 16/10 eq:+0.564
Player: 62.38% (G:23.33% B:1.49%)
Opponent: 37.62% (G:16.57% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.554..+0.574) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:+0.432 (-0.132)
Player: 59.69% (G:16.09% B:1.00%)
Opponent: 40.31% (G:18.11% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.421..+0.443) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/18* 7/1* eq:+0.414 (-0.150)
Player: 57.31% (G:30.79% B:0.85%)
Opponent: 42.69% (G:25.66% B:2.74%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.401..+0.427) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/18* 8/2 eq:+0.414 (-0.150)
Player: 57.20% (G:19.84% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 42.80% (G:17.37% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.402..+0.426) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4pt or hit?

<uhgloi$2b64t$1@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4pt or hit?
Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2023 11:42:07 -0400
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In-Reply-To: <uh5qkq$352a2$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:42 UTC

On 10/23/2023 8:58 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-aB--BCBA-A-b--C-babAbabb-:1:1:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |       X     O  O |   | O  X  O  O  O  O |
>  |       X     O    |   | O     O     O  O |
>  |       X          |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X                | +---+
>  | O              X |   | X  X        X    | | 2 |
>  | O     X     X  X |   | X  X        X  O | +---+
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 129  O: 102 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X to play 62

Hitting escapes with tempo, while making the four point is a permanent
asset and with a 50 pip lead X doesn't need more of a lead to win. But
with 11 in the zone, a three point board, and one on the roof the gammon
wins seem to make the hitting play worth it.

Should X whack two? If we're hitting it looks better than 10/4 or 8/2.

20/18* 7/1*.

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