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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit on the ace point?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit on the ace point?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Hit on the ace point?ah...Clem
+- Re: Hit on the ace point?Stick Rice
+- Rollout: Hit on the ace point?Timothy Chow
`* Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow
 +- Re: Anchor or hit?Stick Rice
 `- Rollout: Anchor or hit?Timothy Chow

1
Hit on the ace point?

<uhfb89$239g4$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit on the ace point?
Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2023 23:36:40 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 03:36 UTC

XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit on the ace point?

<uhgm5s$2b64t$3@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit on the ace point?
Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2023 11:49:13 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:49 UTC

On 10/26/2023 11:36 PM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |    O        O  X |   | O  O     O       |
>  |    O        O  X |   | O  O     O       |
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   | 6                |
>  |                  |   | X                |
>  |             X    |   | X                |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X             |
>  | O           X  X |   | X  X           O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 120  O: 130 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61

8/2 looks almost forced. Then 6/5 looks more flexible than 2/1*.
Hitting seems to give O more chances to move the runner to where it sees
daylight.

8/2 6/5.

Re: Hit on the ace point?

<84a0dba4-ade1-4bd4-ade6-077b9c62373cn@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Hit on the ace point?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 19:50 UTC

On Thursday, October 26, 2023 at 11:36:44 PM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O X | | O O O |
> | O O X | | O O O |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | 6 |
> | | | X |
> | X | | X |
> | O X X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 61
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I'm sure somebody out there is missing it ... Next!

Stick

Rollout: Hit on the ace point?

<uhlnsc$3t949$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit on the ace point?
Date: Sun, 29 Oct 2023 09:49:00 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 29 Oct 2023 13:49 UTC

XGID=-a---BFBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | 6 |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 120 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

Spare distribution has a big influence on this play. See the two
variants below.

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.188
Player: 54.92% (G:12.18% B:0.34%)
Opponent: 45.08% (G:9.47% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.176..+0.199) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.060 (-0.128)
Player: 51.70% (G:10.66% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 48.30% (G:9.41% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.048..+0.072) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a---CEBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 119 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.206
Player: 55.47% (G:12.23% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 44.53% (G:9.05% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.193..+0.218) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.166 (-0.040)
Player: 54.16% (G:12.35% B:0.29%)
Opponent: 45.84% (G:8.57% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.154..+0.177) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a---DDBC---b-b--cBcb-b---:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O |
| O O X | | O O O |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 118 O: 130 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 8/1* eq:+0.198
Player: 54.83% (G:13.07% B:0.27%)
Opponent: 45.17% (G:8.89% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.187..+0.210) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/2 6/5 eq:+0.146 (-0.053)
Player: 54.00% (G:11.50% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 46.00% (G:9.89% B:0.35%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.135..+0.157) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Anchor or hit?

<uhlnur$3t949$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Anchor or hit?
Date: Sun, 29 Oct 2023 09:50:19 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 29 Oct 2023 13:50 UTC

XGID=-ab-bBDBB-A-aB---abbbbA--A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O O |
| O X X X | | X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Re: Anchor or hit?

<9b6bc3f4-d25b-4873-933b-703182642a53n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Anchor or hit?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sun, 29 Oct 2023 19:31 UTC

On Sunday, October 29, 2023 at 9:50:22 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-ab-bBDBB-A-aB---abbbbA--A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | X X | | X X O O |
> | O X X X | | X X O O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 147 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 21
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

You get to hit the checker that steals the most timing from your opponent, definitely hit.

Stick

Rollout: Anchor or hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Anchor or hit?
Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2023 09:40:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 31 Oct 2023 13:40 UTC

XGID=-ab-bBDBB-A-aB---abbbbA--A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O O |
| O X X X | | X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 177 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

Bar/23 already allows X's rearmost checker escape with a 6, so the
need to step up to the 22pt is less urgent (and the need for an
anchor is also not urgent because O doesn't have a blitzing structure).
The decision would be very different if O's outfield blot were on X's
11pt instead of his 12pt; see variant below.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/23 13/12* eq:+0.551
Player: 60.79% (G:28.35% B:2.33%)
Opponent: 39.21% (G:12.04% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.024 (+0.527..+0.575) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:+0.404 (-0.147)
Player: 58.98% (G:22.10% B:1.51%)
Opponent: 41.02% (G:11.92% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.023 (+0.381..+0.427) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-ab-bBDBB-Aa-B---abbbbA--A:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X X | | X X O O |
| O X X X | | X X O O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 178 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ Bar/22 eq:+0.488
Player: 59.97% (G:24.35% B:1.78%)
Opponent: 40.03% (G:11.18% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (+0.467..+0.510) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/24 13/11* eq:+0.417 (-0.072)
Player: 58.27% (G:26.96% B:2.19%)
Opponent: 41.73% (G:13.29% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.023 (+0.394..+0.440) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit on the ace point?

1
server_pubkey.txt

rocksolid light 0.9.81
clearnet tor