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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

SubjectAuthor
* 4-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: 4-away/5-away cube actionStick Rice
+- Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube actionTimothy Chow
`* Re: 4-away/5-away cube actionah...Clem
 `- Re: 4-away/5-away cube actionStick Rice

1
4-away/5-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 4-away/5-away cube action
Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2023 09:51:03 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 22 Oct 2023 13:51 UTC

XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X O | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sun, 22 Oct 2023 23:19 UTC

On Sunday, October 22, 2023 at 9:51:07 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O O O X |
> | X O | | O O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X X O | | X X X X |
> | X X O | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

DT for money with lots of gammons in the air for the 5a player at 5a 4a usually equates to DP.

Stick

Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 4-away/5-away cube action
Date: Tue, 24 Oct 2023 07:47:21 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 24 Oct 2023 11:47 UTC

XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10

Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| X X O | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

In non-gammonish positions, the cube action at 4-away/5-away is not
all that different from money, but gammons can change the equation
dramatically. The rollout below says that X wins over 30% gammons
here, which is much higher than I thought. XG says this is an easy
take for money (~0.8) but a big pass ATS.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.11% (G:29.78% B:1.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.89% (G:10.00% B:0.61%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.55% (G:32.73% B:2.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.45% (G:11.42% B:0.99%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.768 (-0.232)
Double/Take: +1.173 (+0.173)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.754..+0.782)
Confidence Double: ± 0.021 (+1.151..+1.194)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: 4-away/5-away cube action
Date: Fri, 27 Oct 2023 11:33:33 -0400
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 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:33 UTC

On 10/22/2023 9:51 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
>
> Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  | X           O    |   | O  O  O  O     X |
>  | X           O    |   | O  O     O       |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |   | O                |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |    X        X  O |   | X  X  X  X       |
>  |    X        X  O |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 124  O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action

Race is even, X has a straggler to run home, and O has the bar point
anchor. The take seems clear.

Can X cube? 33 and 66 are market losers, and hitting on the 21 followed
by a dance. That might be enough - 2 plus half of 13 is close to the
requisite nine, but the part of O'Hagens's law about "nothing bad
otherwise" doesn't seem to apply.

I'll hold the cube here. ND/T.

Re: 4-away/5-away cube action

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Subject: Re: 4-away/5-away cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Fri, 27 Oct 2023 19:48 UTC

On Friday, October 27, 2023 at 11:33:38 AM UTC-4, ah...Clem wrote:
> On 10/22/2023 9:51 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--aBBBBbB--B-B---b-ebab-A-:0:0:1:00:3:2:0:7:10
> >
> > Score is X:3 O:2 7 pt.(s) match.
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O | | O O O O X |
> > | X O | | O O O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | | | O |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | X X O | | X X X X |
> > | X X O | | X X X X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 124 O: 125 X-O: 3-2/7
> > Cube: 1
> > X on roll, cube action
> Race is even, X has a straggler to run home, and O has the bar point
> anchor. The take seems clear.
>
> Can X cube? 33 and 66 are market losers, and hitting on the 21 followed
> by a dance. That might be enough - 2 plus half of 13 is close to the
> requisite nine, but the part of O'Hagens's law about "nothing bad
> otherwise" doesn't seem to apply.
>
> I'll hold the cube here. ND/T.

O'Hagan's Law is meant for money games (or normal scores) only. It wouldn't apply here. If you were applying it to this position for money one thing you'd need to realize is that if we hit the opponent on his 4pt a lot of his entering numbers are still passes.

Stick

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