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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?

SubjectAuthor
* Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?Stick Rice
+- Rollout: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?Timothy Chow
`* Attack or run?Timothy Chow
 `* Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow
  `* Re: Rollout: Attack or run?atila...@gmail.com
   `* Re: Rollout: Attack or run?Stick Rice
    `- Re: Rollout: Attack or run?Timothy Chow

1
Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?

<uhj1a9$2suk2$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?
Date: Sat, 28 Oct 2023 09:11:34 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 28 Oct 2023 13:11 UTC

XGID=--CBBBC---------aa--bcCec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 52 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?

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Subject: Re: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sun, 29 Oct 2023 19:30 UTC

On Saturday, October 28, 2023 at 9:12:27 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--CBBBC---------aa--bcCec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O O X O O |
> | | | O O X O O |
> | | | O X O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X | | 2 |
> | | | X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 114 O: 52 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

3/4ths of the numbers hit and to simplify we're going to call all of those hits wins. That means the net gammon difference only needs to be around 6% to make this a pass. Seems like a clear pass then.

Stick

Rollout: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Your opponent rolled an anti-joker. Now what?
Date: Mon, 30 Oct 2023 09:24:12 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 30 Oct 2023 13:24 UTC

XGID=--CBBBC---------aa--bcCec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 52 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

It may not even be clear at first that this is a double since the
cube will be coming right back after X's 9 misses, and X will have
at best a bare take depending on what he rolls. However, since the
27 hits are so devastating, X must double now. I thought that this
should still be a clear take, again because O pretty much always
wins after a miss, but XG says that the risk of getting gammoned
is too high. See the two variants for comparison.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.48% (G:22.78% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.52% (G:3.99% B:0.02%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.05% (G:22.56% B:0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.95% (G:4.09% B:0.02%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.787 (-0.213)
Redouble/Take: +1.111 (+0.111)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.783..+0.792)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+1.103..+1.119)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-ABBBBC---------aa--bcCec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 52 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 71.37% (G:24.50% B:0.77%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.63% (G:6.09% B:0.04%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.77% (G:24.48% B:0.74%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.23% (G:6.37% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.730 (-0.270)
Redouble/Take: +1.015 (+0.015)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.725..+0.735)
Confidence Double: ± 0.011 (+1.004..+1.025)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=--CBBBC---------a-a-bcCec-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X O O |
| | | O O X O O |
| | | O X O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 114 O: 51 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 68.39% (G:20.73% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.61% (G:4.51% B:0.02%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.98% (G:20.52% B:0.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.02% (G:4.69% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.665 (-0.198)
Redouble/Take: +0.864
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.136)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.005 (+0.661..+0.670)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+0.855..+0.872)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Attack or run?
Date: Mon, 30 Oct 2023 09:25:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 30 Oct 2023 13:25 UTC

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Wed, 1 Nov 2023 09:40:56 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 1 Nov 2023 13:40 UTC

XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O |
| X O | | O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O O X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or run?
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Thu, 2 Nov 2023 10:57 UTC

1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O |
> | X O | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | X | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O O X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 55
> It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
> pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
> if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
> rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
> but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
> Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
> Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
> Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
> Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
> Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
> Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.

Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or run?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:18 UTC

On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 6:57:55 AM UTC-4, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
> 1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:
> > XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | X O O | | O O |
> > | X O | | O O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | | O |
> > | X | X | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O O X | | X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 55
> > It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
> > pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
> > if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
> > rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
> > but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.
> >
> > 1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
> > Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
> > Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
> > Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
> > Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
> > Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
> > Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]
> >
> > 3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
> > Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
> > Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
> > Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
> The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.

You meant the gammon percentage and not backgammon percentage. And we'd explain it with cube efficiency. The Jacoby Rule doesn't come into play often where we would send an initial cube with Jacoby toggled on and we wouldn't with it off.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Attack or run?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Attack or run?
Date: Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:35:28 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 13:35 UTC

On 11/7/2023 3:18 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 6:57:55 AM UTC-4, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
>> 1 Kasım 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:41:00 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:
>>> XGID=-a----E-D--adE--ab-d---b-A:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10
>>>
>>> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>>> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>>> | X O O | | O O |
>>> | X O | | O O |
>>> | X | | O |
>>> | X | | O |
>>> | X | X | |
>>> | |BAR| |
>>> | | | X |
>>> | O X | | X |
>>> | O X | | X |
>>> | O X | | X |
>>> | O O X | | X O |
>>> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
>>> Pip count X: 152 O: 143 X-O: 0-0
>>> Cube: 1
>>> X to play 55
>>> It's tempting to attack here, especially since O has two other blots to
>>> pick up, but XG favors the "just win" strategy of running. Notice that
>>> if you do attack with 6/1*(2), XG recommends that your final 5 be 13/8
>>> rather than 20/15. The stack of 5 checkers on the 8pt may look ugly,
>>> but 20/15 gives up on trying to hit O's checker on her 9pt.
>>>
>>> 1. Rollout¹ Bar/10 13/8 eq:+0.318
>>> Player: 59.19% (G:7.00% B:0.20%)
>>> Opponent: 40.81% (G:6.76% B:0.17%)
>>> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.308..+0.329) - [100.0%]
>>>
>>> 2. Rollout¹ Bar/20 13/8 6/1*(2) eq:+0.263 (-0.056)
>>> Player: 55.66% (G:16.12% B:0.61%)
>>> Opponent: 44.34% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
>>> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.252..+0.274) - [0.0%]
>>>
>>> 3. Rollout¹ Bar/15 6/1*(2) eq:+0.220 (-0.098)
>>> Player: 55.46% (G:11.01% B:0.24%)
>>> Opponent: 44.54% (G:9.57% B:0.23%)
>>> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.211..+0.230) - [0.0%]
>>>
>>> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
>>> Dice Seed: 271828
>>> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>>>
>>> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>>>
>>> ---
>>> Tim Chow
>> How should we explain that the move that decreases the single game win percentage by 3.53 but increases the backgammon win percentage by 9.12 is not preferred here?
>> The jacoby rule is not marked in the position.
>
> You meant the gammon percentage and not backgammon percentage. And we'd explain it with cube efficiency. The Jacoby Rule doesn't come into play often where we would send an initial cube with Jacoby toggled on and we wouldn't with it off.

For some reason, my news server didn't show me atila...'s message.

Anyway, in this particular case, I think there's a simpler explanation.
Although (pseudocubeless) gammon *wins* go up from 7.00% to 16.12%,
(pseudocubeless) gammon *losses* also go up from 6.76% to 11.17%, so
the *net* increase is less than 5%, which is less than twice 3.53%.

---
Tim Chow

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