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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 44 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 44 to playTimothy Chow
+* Rollout: 44 to playTimothy Chow
|`* Re: Rollout: 44 to playStick Rice
| `* Re: Rollout: 44 to playTimothy Chow
|  `* Re: Rollout: 44 to playStick Rice
|   `* Re: Rollout: 44 to playTimothy Chow
|    +- Re: Rollout: 44 to playTony The Welsh Twat
|    `* Re: Rollout: 44 to playStick Rice
|     `- Re: Rollout: 44 to playTimothy Chow
`* Can't cover the 5ptTimothy Chow
 +* Rollout: Can't cover the 5ptTimothy Chow
 |`- Re: Rollout: Can't cover the 5ptStick Rice
 `* Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
  +- Re: Hit and then...?Stick Rice
  +- Rollout: Hit and then...?Timothy Chow
  `- Re: Hit and then...?ah....Clem

1
44 to play

<uhr05h$12bqo$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 44 to play
Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2023 09:41:04 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 31 Oct 2023 13:41 UTC

XGID=---a-BD-B--AdDa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 44 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 44 to play
Date: Thu, 2 Nov 2023 08:49:26 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 2 Nov 2023 12:49 UTC

XGID=---a-BD-B--AdDa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 153 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

I tried hitting here, but X has only nine checkers in the zone and the
race is pretty much even. XG prefers the "15-against-1" containment
strategy. But see also the variant.

1. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.456
Player: 62.30% (G:10.18% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 37.70% (G:6.10% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.444..+0.468) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.348 (-0.108)
Player: 56.39% (G:18.99% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 43.61% (G:5.74% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.335..+0.361) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.301 (-0.155)
Player: 55.88% (G:17.49% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 44.12% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.290..+0.311) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.297 (-0.159)
Player: 54.24% (G:20.19% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 45.76% (G:6.44% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.286..+0.308) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---a-CC-C--AdCa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O X O |
| X O O | | O X O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| O | | |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.413
Player: 57.38% (G:25.31% B:0.37%)
Opponent: 42.62% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.406..+0.419) - [63.8%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.002)
Player: 60.44% (G:12.68% B:0.35%)
Opponent: 39.56% (G:7.88% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.404..+0.418) - [36.2%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.379 (-0.033)
Player: 57.89% (G:17.21% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 42.11% (G:5.09% B:0.23%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/5 eq:+0.371 (-0.041)
Player: 59.89% (G:9.20% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 40.11% (G:5.07% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.366..+0.377) - [0.0%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Can't cover the 5pt

<ui0602$26mr4$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Can't cover the 5pt
Date: Thu, 2 Nov 2023 08:51:14 -0400
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 2 Nov 2023 12:51 UTC

XGID=a-BBaABCB-a-----cbAbbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Can't cover the 5pt

<uiatfr$gbpt$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Can't cover the 5pt
Date: Mon, 6 Nov 2023 09:33:31 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 6 Nov 2023 14:33 UTC

XGID=a-BBaABCB-a-----cbAbbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

Hitting 8/4* gives O a double shot from the bar and exposes another blot
on the 8pt, but XG says that anything else is horrible. Given that we
can't cover the 5pt, 8/4* give O that many more hitting rolls, and the
upside is enormous if O doesn't hit back.

1. Rollout¹ 18/13 8/4* eq:-0.182
Player: 42.82% (G:21.25% B:0.94%)
Opponent: 57.18% (G:20.31% B:1.25%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.198..-0.166) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/2 eq:-0.361 (-0.179)
Player: 40.65% (G:15.23% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 59.35% (G:21.72% B:1.05%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.373..-0.350) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/4* 7/2 eq:-0.395 (-0.213)
Player: 37.86% (G:18.99% B:0.74%)
Opponent: 62.14% (G:24.42% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.414..-0.376) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/4* eq:-0.427 (-0.244)
Player: 36.91% (G:17.26% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 63.09% (G:21.88% B:1.07%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.442..-0.411) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/3 eq:-0.476 (-0.294)
Player: 38.06% (G:15.13% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 61.94% (G:26.73% B:1.45%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.494..-0.458) - [0.0%]

6. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:-0.489 (-0.307)
Player: 35.47% (G:13.41% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 64.53% (G:16.01% B:0.60%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.501..-0.477) - [0.0%]

7. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.608 (-0.426)
Player: 36.59% (G:15.92% B:0.96%)
Opponent: 63.41% (G:30.82% B:3.74%)
Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.631..-0.586) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a-BBaABCB-a--A--cb-bbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| O | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| X | | |
| X X | | X X X |
| O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 121 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.176
Player: 44.12% (G:17.96% B:0.86%)
Opponent: 55.88% (G:19.45% B:0.74%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.190..-0.162) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:-0.281 (-0.105)
Player: 40.29% (G:20.02% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 59.71% (G:16.46% B:0.73%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.296..-0.266) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Hit and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit and then...?
Date: Mon, 6 Nov 2023 09:35:22 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 6 Nov 2023 14:35 UTC

XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:21 UTC

On Thursday, November 2, 2023 at 8:49:29 AM UTC-4, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---a-BD-B--AdDa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X O |
> | X O O | | O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 153 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 44
> I tried hitting here, but X has only nine checkers in the zone and the
> race is pretty much even. XG prefers the "15-against-1" containment
> strategy. But see also the variant.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.456
> Player: 62.30% (G:10.18% B:0.21%)
> Opponent: 37.70% (G:6.10% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.444..+0.468) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 8/4(2) eq:+0.348 (-0.108)
> Player: 56.39% (G:18.99% B:0.26%)
> Opponent: 43.61% (G:5.74% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.335..+0.361) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 6/2(2) eq:+0.301 (-0.155)
> Player: 55.88% (G:17.49% B:0.26%)
> Opponent: 44.12% (G:6.15% B:0.27%)
> Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.290..+0.311) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.297 (-0.159)
> Player: 54.24% (G:20.19% B:0.39%)
> Opponent: 45.76% (G:6.44% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.286..+0.308) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=---a-CC-C--AdCa--bbcBb----:0:0:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O O | | O X O |
> | X O O | | O X O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | O | | |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X | | X X |
> | O X X | | X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 147 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 44
> 1. Rollout¹ 11/3* 8/4(2) eq:+0.413
> Player: 57.38% (G:25.31% B:0.37%)
> Opponent: 42.62% (G:6.45% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.406..+0.419) - [63.8%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.411 (-0.002)
> Player: 60.44% (G:12.68% B:0.35%)
> Opponent: 39.56% (G:7.88% B:0.34%)
> Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.404..+0.418) - [36.2%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 13/9(2) 13/5 eq:+0.379 (-0.033)
> Player: 57.89% (G:17.21% B:0.32%)
> Opponent: 42.11% (G:5.09% B:0.23%)
> Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/5 eq:+0.371 (-0.041)
> Player: 59.89% (G:9.20% B:0.15%)
> Opponent: 40.11% (G:5.07% B:0.17%)
> Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.366..+0.377) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too much has changed.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Can't cover the 5pt

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Can't cover the 5pt
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:31 UTC

On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 9:33:34 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=a-BBaABCB-a-----cbAbbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O X | | O O O X |
> | O O | | O O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
> Hitting 8/4* gives O a double shot from the bar and exposes another blot
> on the 8pt, but XG says that anything else is horrible. Given that we
> can't cover the 5pt, 8/4* give O that many more hitting rolls, and the
> upside is enormous if O doesn't hit back.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 18/13 8/4* eq:-0.182
> Player: 42.82% (G:21.25% B:0.94%)
> Opponent: 57.18% (G:20.31% B:1.25%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.198..-0.166) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 22/18 7/2 eq:-0.361 (-0.179)
> Player: 40.65% (G:15.23% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 59.35% (G:21.72% B:1.05%)
> Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.373..-0.350) - [0.0%]
>
> 3. Rollout¹ 8/4* 7/2 eq:-0.395 (-0.213)
> Player: 37.86% (G:18.99% B:0.74%)
> Opponent: 62.14% (G:24.42% B:1.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.019 (-0.414..-0.376) - [0.0%]
>
> 4. Rollout¹ 8/3 8/4* eq:-0.427 (-0.244)
> Player: 36.91% (G:17.26% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 63.09% (G:21.88% B:1.07%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.442..-0.411) - [0.0%]
>
> 5. Rollout¹ 22/18 8/3 eq:-0.476 (-0.294)
> Player: 38.06% (G:15.13% B:0.72%)
> Opponent: 61.94% (G:26.73% B:1.45%)
> Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.494..-0.458) - [0.0%]
>
> 6. Rollout¹ 18/9 eq:-0.489 (-0.307)
> Player: 35.47% (G:13.41% B:0.49%)
> Opponent: 64.53% (G:16.01% B:0.60%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.501..-0.477) - [0.0%]
>
> 7. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.608 (-0.426)
> Player: 36.59% (G:15.92% B:0.96%)
> Opponent: 63.41% (G:30.82% B:3.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.022 (-0.631..-0.586) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=a-BBaABCB-a--A--cb-bbcB---:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O O X |
> | O O | | O O O X |
> | O | | O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | X | | |
> | X X | | X X X |
> | O X X | | X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 121 O: 138 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 54
> 1. Rollout¹ 22/13 eq:-0.176
> Player: 44.12% (G:17.96% B:0.86%)
> Opponent: 55.88% (G:19.45% B:0.74%)
> Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.190..-0.162) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/4* eq:-0.281 (-0.105)
> Player: 40.29% (G:20.02% B:0.76%)
> Opponent: 59.71% (G:16.46% B:0.73%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.296..-0.266) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

While we give the opponent more hitting numbers we really don't give him any more good rolls. Those numbers were pretty solid anyway as anchoring on a high point in this position is also fairly devastating.

Another thing to note is that this double hit can force the opponent into a lot of situations where he blows by his market, never getting a chance to cube. Also, for us, the 1/4th of the time he does dance with two on the bar and another checker floating, we actually have a pretty decent cube next turn.

Stick

Re: Hit and then...?

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Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:32 UTC

On Monday, November 6, 2023 at 9:35:25 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | X | | X |
> | O X | | X X O X X |
> | O O X X | | X X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

10/8? Less blots, less shots. Seems straighforward.

Stick

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
Date: Tue, 7 Nov 2023 08:36:26 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 13:36 UTC

On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:

> I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too much has changed.
>

Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
of variants.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 7 Nov 2023 15:58 UTC

On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
>
> > I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too much has changed.
> >
> Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
> of variants.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.

Stick

Rollout: Hit and then...?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: Hit and then...?
Date: Wed, 8 Nov 2023 09:22:08 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 8 Nov 2023 14:22 UTC

XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

O's board is strong enough that minimizing shots wins the rollout.
I thought it was worth the risk to position my checkers more flexibly
in the outfield, but XG disagrees.

With a roll out 63, the bold play leaves just two more shots than
the safe play (see variant). XG 4-ply favors the bold play (barely!)
but a rollout overturns this verdict.

1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 10/8 eq:+0.576
Player: 63.86% (G:13.96% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 36.14% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.566..+0.586) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/15 17/11* eq:+0.510 (-0.066)
Player: 62.23% (G:15.99% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.77% (G:10.15% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.502..+0.517) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-----------------
Variant, XG 4-ply
-----------------

XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. 4-ply 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.551
Player: 63.72% (G:16.17% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 36.28% (G:8.44% B:0.42%)

2. 4-ply 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.550 (-0.001)
Player: 62.50% (G:14.96% B:0.20%)
Opponent: 37.50% (G:6.56% B:0.22%)

3. 4-ply 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.531 (-0.020)
Player: 62.25% (G:17.38% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 37.75% (G:8.43% B:0.44%)

4. 4-ply 17/11* 4/1 eq:+0.469 (-0.082)
Player: 59.97% (G:16.39% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 40.03% (G:9.56% B:0.48%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

----------------
Variant, rollout
----------------

XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 96 O: 129 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 63

1. Rollout¹ 17/11* 11/8 eq:+0.553
Player: 63.02% (G:14.95% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 36.98% (G:6.82% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.547..+0.560) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 17/14 17/11* eq:+0.533 (-0.021)
Player: 63.68% (G:15.88% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 36.32% (G:8.90% B:0.46%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.524..+0.542) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 17/11* 8/5 eq:+0.522 (-0.032)
Player: 62.58% (G:16.96% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.42% (G:8.93% B:0.47%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.513..+0.530) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Hit and then...?

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah....Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Hit and then...?
Date: Fri, 10 Nov 2023 16:40:29 -0500
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 by: ah....Clem - Fri, 10 Nov 2023 21:40 UTC

On 11/6/2023 9:35 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-BBbCB--C-Aab----B-cbbc---:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |             X    |   | O  O  O  O       |
>  |             X    |   | O  O  O  O       |
>  |                  |   | O        O       |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |             X    |   |       X          |
>  | O           X    |   |    X  X  O  X  X |
>  | O  O  X     X    |   |    X  X  O  X  X |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 96  O: 129 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62

17/15 dupes threes while 10/8 moves a blot to safety. Not sure which
leaves fewer shots and I'm not going to count since it's probably not
the deciding factor. O is busy getting off the bar so I'll take the
opportunity to play fllexibly to make one of the three points that are
open in front of the anchor. So, 17/11* 17/15.

--
Ah....Clem
The future is fun, the future is fair.

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2023 10:49:53 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 11 Nov 2023 15:49 UTC

On 11/7/2023 10:58 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
>> On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
>>
>>> I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too much has changed.
>>>
>> Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
>> of variants.
>>
>> ---
>> Tim Chow
>
> It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.

It's not about backgammon per se, but about the variety of ways to study
a subject.

I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain
arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
the subject. The wisest instructors recognize that there are as many
ways to approach learning a subject as there are students.

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
From: tonythew...@gmail.com (Tony The Welsh Twat)
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 by: Tony The Welsh Twat - Sat, 11 Nov 2023 17:39 UTC

On Saturday, 11 November 2023 at 15:50:44 UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
>
> I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
> lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain
> arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
> the subject.
> ---
> Tim Chow

Yep, there's your problem.

Right there.

You live at home with "mom" and are a virgin, right?

So, deal with my last sentence and then come back here when you've gone beyond solo handjobs and tissues.

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Sun, 12 Nov 2023 20:15 UTC

On Saturday, November 11, 2023 at 10:50:44 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 11/7/2023 10:58 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> > On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 at 8:36:30 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> >> On 11/7/2023 3:21 AM, Stick Rice wrote:
> >>
> >>> I think this is a terrible variant. You've evened out your attacking distribution while putting another checker in the zone ... and putting that checker in the zone has made it so the best play in the original position now leaves a direct shot. Way too much has changed.
> >>>
> >> Clearly, you have too narrow an understanding of the purpose
> >> of variants.
> >>
> >> ---
> >> Tim Chow
> >
> > It's true I'm not that bright especially when it comes to backgammon.
> It's not about backgammon per se, but about the variety of ways to study
> a subject.
>
> I live in a world of professional mathematicians who certainly know a
> lot of math, but unfortunately that knowledge can lead to a certain
> arrogance and dogmatism when it comes to opinions about how to study
> the subject. The wisest instructors recognize that there are as many
> ways to approach learning a subject as there are students.
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I certainly understand there are many ways to skin a cat, that's to say there's more than one way to sheer a sheep, that's to say there's more than one way to skip a stone, that's to say...you get the point. However, you have to admit some ways are just plain wrong lol

Stick

Re: Rollout: 44 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: 44 to play
Date: Mon, 13 Nov 2023 07:49:20 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 13 Nov 2023 12:49 UTC

On 11/12/2023 3:15 PM, Stick Rice wrote:
> I certainly understand there are many ways to skin a cat, that's to say there's more than one way to sheer a sheep, that's to say there's more than one way to skip a stone, that's to say...you get the point. However, you have to admit some ways are just plain wrong lol

I agree that the variant I posted changed many variables at once.
Does that automatically make it a terrible variant? No. I didn't
state exactly what conclusion I, or anyone else, should draw from
it. Sometimes when one play in the rollout comes way ahead of the
alternatives, no 'small' change is going to change which play comes
out on top. In such cases, if I'm interested in why my instincts are
so far off and what it would take to put my whopper-with-cheese play
on top, I have to make a major change to the position. Once I find a
position that finally swings the play, then I have two "bookends,"
between which I can explore the relative importance of various factors
in the position.

Understanding the relationship between two positions which differ in
many factors is something one has to do all the time in backgammon.
Even if one memorizes many reference positions, it will be rare that
a reference position differs from your current position in just one
respect. You'll have to weigh the relative importance of several
factors. By the same token, when exploring variants of a given position,
one needs to consider many possibilities. When I post a variant, there's
no implication that it's the only interesting variant, or that only one
factor has changed. It's just one interesting variant of many that I
found, and that I thought others might find interesting too.

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / 44 to play

1
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