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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Time to attack?

SubjectAuthor
* Time to attack?Timothy Chow
+- Re: Time to attack?ah...Clem
`- Rollout: Time to attack?Timothy Chow

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Time to attack?

<uj7tmi$2r2id$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Time to attack?
Date: Fri, 17 Nov 2023 09:34:58 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 17 Nov 2023 14:34 UTC

XGID=-a-BBCCB----b--b-dbdB--A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Re: Time to attack?

<uj81g3$2d4b1$3@dont-email.me>

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From: ah_c...@ymail.com (ah...Clem)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Time to attack?
Date: Fri, 17 Nov 2023 10:39:45 -0500
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In-Reply-To: <uj7tmi$2r2id$2@dont-email.me>
 by: ah...Clem - Fri, 17 Nov 2023 15:39 UTC

On 11/17/2023 9:34 AM, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a-BBCCB----b--b-dbdB--A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
>  +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
>  |       O     O  O |   | O  X        X    | +---+
>  |       O     O  O |   | O  X             | | 2 |
>  |             O    |   | O                | +---+
>  |             O    |   | O                |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |BAR|                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   |                  |
>  |                  |   | X  X             |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X  X       |
>  | O              X |   | X  X  X  X     O |
>  +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count  X: 124  O: 140 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, O own cube
> X to play 65

X is ahead in the race, so simply running is thematic - there's no
compelling reason to attack on the ace point.

EXCEPT: running off the anchor leaves a whole bunch of shots. Maybe the
solid five prime with O not at the edge makes offering up a near certain
trip to the roof worth it, but I'm not seeing it.

Hit loose and run? Might be the goldilocks play, but I'll POH on the ace.

Rollout: Time to attack?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Time to attack?
Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2023 15:16:01 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 19 Nov 2023 20:16 UTC

XGID=-a-BBCCB----b--b-dbdB--A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

When we have a five-prime and the opponent has a straggler behind it
that is not at the edge of a prime, it's often best to leave the prime
intact rather than break our five-prime to attack it. However, here,
the only plausible play that doesn't hit is to break our golden anchor
in front our our opponent's stacks. It's interesting to compare this
position with Variant 2 below, where we have a 4pt anchor instead.

Once we decide to hit with 6/1*, there remains the question whether to
cover with 7/1 or jump out with 20/14. I'm not sure exactly how to
assess this decision, especially in light of Variant 1 below.

1. Rollout¹ 7/1* 6/1 eq:+0.473
Player: 64.73% (G:38.33% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 35.27% (G:5.59% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.463..+0.483) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/1* eq:+0.413 (-0.059)
Player: 63.82% (G:36.73% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 36.18% (G:8.16% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.403..+0.424) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 20/9 eq:+0.319 (-0.154)
Player: 61.80% (G:31.68% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 38.20% (G:8.51% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.309..+0.328) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-a-BCBCB----b--b-dbdB--A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 6/1* eq:+0.410
Player: 63.50% (G:36.94% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 36.50% (G:8.39% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.400..+0.420) - [76.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1* 6/1 eq:+0.405 (-0.005)
Player: 62.95% (G:35.87% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 37.05% (G:5.86% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.394..+0.415) - [24.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-a-BBCCB----b--b-dbd-B-A--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O X X | +---+
| O O O | | O X | | 2 |
| O | | O | +---+
| O | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 65

1. Rollout¹ 21/10 eq:+0.335
Player: 62.32% (G:31.52% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 37.68% (G:8.17% B:0.41%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.326..+0.345) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/1* 6/1 eq:+0.209 (-0.127)
Player: 57.63% (G:31.10% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 42.37% (G:6.97% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.199..+0.218) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Time to attack?

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