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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 5pt or hit? 2

SubjectAuthor
* 5pt or hit? 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: 5pt or hit? 2Timothy Chow

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5pt or hit? 2

<ujr4a1$2fhes$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt or hit? 2
Date: Fri, 24 Nov 2023 16:24:16 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 24 Nov 2023 21:24 UTC

XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--b-B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 5pt or hit? 2

<ujvh6b$39agt$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt or hit? 2
Date: Sun, 26 Nov 2023 08:28:43 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 26 Nov 2023 13:28 UTC

XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--b-B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 160 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

O has made her bar point, so X's back checkers are starting to get
primed. This roll therefore does several things at once: not only
does it hit, but it escapes a back checker and interferes with O's
prime-building. It would be a different story if X had the 2pt anchor
rather than the 1pt anchor (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 24/17* eq:+0.013
Player: 51.16% (G:13.74% B:0.80%)
Opponent: 48.84% (G:16.25% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.002..+0.028) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:-0.046 (-0.059)
Player: 49.02% (G:16.18% B:0.87%)
Opponent: 50.98% (G:17.42% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.060..-0.033) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-b----E-D--AdC---abd--bB--:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X | | X O |
| O X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 158 O: 152 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 61

1. Rollout¹ 11/5 6/5 eq:+0.139
Player: 52.85% (G:17.56% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 47.15% (G:13.58% B:0.69%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.126..+0.153) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 23/17* 17/16 eq:+0.069 (-0.071)
Player: 52.62% (G:14.69% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 47.38% (G:15.99% B:0.71%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (+0.051..+0.086) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/17* 11/10 eq:+0.068 (-0.071)
Player: 52.36% (G:14.74% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 47.64% (G:16.08% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.054..+0.081) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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