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interests / rec.games.backgammon / 5pt or anchor?

SubjectAuthor
* 5pt or anchor?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: 5pt or anchor?Timothy Chow
 `- Re: Rollout: 5pt or anchor?Stick Rice

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5pt or anchor?

<uju9cv$30m1e$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 5pt or anchor?
Date: Sat, 25 Nov 2023 21:09:35 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 26 Nov 2023 02:09 UTC

XGID=-a--a-ECC---cB---bbdb-A-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 5pt or anchor?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 5pt or anchor?
Date: Mon, 27 Nov 2023 09:30:30 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 27 Nov 2023 14:30 UTC

XGID=-a--a-ECC---cB---bbdb-A-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X X |
| X O O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 147 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 31

Nack Ballard has an early-game rule of thumb, "Either 5pt beats
either 4pt." But this position is an exception because X urgently
needs to marshall a defense against O's strong offensive position.
She has a very good prime developing as well as some attacking
chances.

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 22/21 eq:-0.059
Player: 47.80% (G:8.84% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 52.20% (G:7.51% B:0.29%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.071..-0.047) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.207 (-0.148)
Player: 45.09% (G:12.99% B:0.56%)
Opponent: 54.91% (G:16.80% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.220..-0.194) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: 5pt or anchor?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: 5pt or anchor?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Tue, 28 Nov 2023 22:53 UTC

On Monday, November 27, 2023 at 9:30:32 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=-a--a-ECC---cB---bbdb-A-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X X |
> | X O O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | X |
> | | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X | | X O O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 147 O: 148 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 31
> Nack Ballard has an early-game rule of thumb, "Either 5pt beats
> either 4pt." But this position is an exception because X urgently
> needs to marshall a defense against O's strong offensive position.
> She has a very good prime developing as well as some attacking
> chances.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 24/21 22/21 eq:-0.059
> Player: 47.80% (G:8.84% B:0.24%)
> Opponent: 52.20% (G:7.51% B:0.29%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.071..-0.047) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/5 eq:-0.207 (-0.148)
> Player: 45.09% (G:12.99% B:0.56%)
> Opponent: 54.91% (G:16.80% B:0.70%)
> Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.220..-0.194) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

The explanation isn't really on point. The main reason we need to make the anchor here instead of making our own five point is that it is much harder to make _that_ anchor. It may take a couple/few turns if we pass up making the 5pt now but we'll more than likely make it in the future. If we don't make the 21pt anchor we may never make it because it's so hard to make. (Not even that we get attacked, it's just hard to make) Even if we take BOTH checkers from the opp's 6pt and toss them back on his midpoint completely stripping any real chance of attacking us or priming us any time in the near future it's still clearly correct to make the advanced anchor.

Stick

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