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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Holding game cube, sort of

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* Holding game cube, sort ofTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Holding game cube, sort ofTimothy Chow

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Holding game cube, sort of

<ujvh85$39agt$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Holding game cube, sort of
Date: Sun, 26 Nov 2023 08:29:41 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 26 Nov 2023 13:29 UTC

XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| O X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X O X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Holding game cube, sort of

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Holding game cube, sort of
Date: Tue, 28 Nov 2023 09:48:15 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 28 Nov 2023 14:48 UTC

XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| O X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| | | X X X O X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

O's board has already started to crunch, and is threatening to
deteriorate further since O will be cautious about breaking
anchor in the face of X's outfield coverage and five-point board.
This looked like a clear double to me, but XG disagrees. The race
is basically even and if O hits a shot then it will immediately
turn the game around.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 69.27% (G:8.79% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.73% (G:2.47% B:0.04%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.60% (G:8.69% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.40% (G:2.39% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.772
Redouble/Take: +0.697 (-0.075)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.228)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 24.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.763..+0.781)
Confidence Double: ± 0.012 (+0.685..+0.709)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBbBBB--B--A--bB-b--bcbb-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O |
| O X O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| X | | X X X O X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 98 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 73.28% (G:8.35% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.72% (G:2.03% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.71% (G:8.60% B:0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.29% (G:2.03% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.893 (-0.012)
Redouble/Take: +0.904
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.096)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.885..+0.901)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.894..+0.915)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Holding game cube, sort of

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