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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double from the bar?

SubjectAuthor
* Double from the bar?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Double from the bar?Timothy Chow

1
Double from the bar?

<ukcoea$1stna$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Double from the bar?
Date: Fri, 1 Dec 2023 08:52:09 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 1 Dec 2023 13:52 UTC

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------bdfaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| | X | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 75 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Double from the bar?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Double from the bar?
Date: Mon, 4 Dec 2023 09:23:04 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 4 Dec 2023 14:23 UTC

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------bdfaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | O O |
| | X | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 75 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Doubling with two on the bar is a rare occurrence, but O's position
is obviously terrible here. According to XG, it's a huge pass, which
I found surprising. Some judgment is needed to assess just how bad
O's board is (see variant).

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 75.54% (G:20.99% B:0.98%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.46% (G:5.79% B:0.03%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 76.88% (G:22.03% B:0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.12% (G:5.75% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.949 (-0.051)
Redouble/Take: +1.291 (+0.291)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.943..+0.954)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.277..+1.305)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=---BbBBBC-B----------dddaB:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | X | O O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X X | | X X O X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 136 O: 79 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 72.49% (G:16.60% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.51% (G:7.05% B:0.05%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.00% (G:16.90% B:0.71%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.00% (G:6.96% B:0.04%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.889 (-0.094)
Redouble/Take: +0.983
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.880..+0.898)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.969..+0.997)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double from the bar?

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