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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back

SubjectAuthor
* Pay now? Holding game with extra checker backTimothy Chow
`* Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker backTimothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker backatila...@gmail.com
  `- Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker backTimothy Chow

1
Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back

<ukkndr$3epqa$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back
Date: Mon, 4 Dec 2023 09:23:54 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 4 Dec 2023 14:23 UTC

XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dbab---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back

<ukpsq1$pdo3$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back
Date: Wed, 6 Dec 2023 08:26:25 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 6 Dec 2023 13:26 UTC

XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dbab---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

This is not quite your usual pay-now-or-later problem, but similar
principles apply. The blot in O's board gives X a license to kill.

1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.428
Player: 59.97% (G:22.42% B:0.66%)
Opponent: 40.03% (G:13.03% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.416..+0.441) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.350 (-0.079)
Player: 58.13% (G:15.22% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 41.87% (G:10.02% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.335..+0.364) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dc-b---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X |
| O X O | | X X X |
| O X X O | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 111 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.407
Player: 59.85% (G:18.79% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 40.15% (G:12.32% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.396..+0.419) - [94.2%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.013)
Player: 59.30% (G:16.21% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 40.70% (G:9.63% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.382..+0.406) - [5.8%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back

<27133bc3-92ce-45b5-9277-3ee31ada6652n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back
From: atilamal...@gmail.com (atila...@gmail.com)
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 by: atila...@gmail.com - Wed, 6 Dec 2023 23:03 UTC

6 Aralık 2023 Çarşamba tarihinde saat 16:27:38 UTC+3 itibarıyla Timothy Chow şunları yazdı:
> XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dbab---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O |
> | X | | O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X O | | X X X |
> | O X X O | | X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 111 O: 141 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> This is not quite your usual pay-now-or-later problem, but similar
> principles apply. The blot in O's board gives X a license to kill.
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.428
> Player: 59.97% (G:22.42% B:0.66%)
> Opponent: 40.03% (G:13.03% B:0.42%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.416..+0.441) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.350 (-0.079)
> Player: 58.13% (G:15.22% B:0.21%)
> Opponent: 41.87% (G:10.02% B:0.30%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (+0.335..+0.364) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=-BBa--CbAC--cD-----dc-b---:0:0:1:64:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O |
> | X | | O O O |
> | X | | O O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X O | | X X X |
> | O X X O | | X O X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 111 O: 142 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 64
> 1. Rollout¹ 13/3* eq:+0.407
> Player: 59.85% (G:18.79% B:0.32%)
> Opponent: 40.15% (G:12.32% B:0.36%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.396..+0.419) - [94.2%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 13/9 8/2 eq:+0.394 (-0.013)
> Player: 59.30% (G:16.21% B:0.26%)
> Opponent: 40.70% (G:9.63% B:0.28%)
> Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.382..+0.406) - [5.8%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow
I think the fact that he only has three points is more important than the blot. The ranking changes when you make the 2 points with the blot on the 4 and the spare on the 6.

Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back

<uksm9h$1a4oa$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Rollout: Pay now? Holding game with extra checker back
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2023 09:53:36 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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<27133bc3-92ce-45b5-9277-3ee31ada6652n@googlegroups.com>
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 7 Dec 2023 14:53 UTC

On 12/6/2023 6:03 PM, atila...@gmail.com wrote:
> I think the fact that he only has three points is more important than the blot. The ranking changes when you make the 2 points with the blot on the 4 and the spare on the 6.

If you're saying that if O had four home-board points then that
would induce us to play safe, then yes, I agree!

---
Tim Chow

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