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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action

SubjectAuthor
* Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow
+- Re: Blitz versus prime cube actionStick Rice
`- Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube actionTimothy Chow

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Blitz versus prime cube action

<uki44s$2sqjv$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Sun, 3 Dec 2023 09:42:35 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 3 Dec 2023 14:42 UTC

XGID=abB-BBC-----cE-----cbbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: Blitz versus prime cube action

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Subject: Re: Blitz versus prime cube action
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 4 Dec 2023 23:02 UTC

On Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 9:42:40 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=abB-BBC-----cE-----cbbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X | | O O O O X |
> | X | | O O O O |
> | X | | O |
> | X | | |
> | X | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X X X O |
> | O | | X X X X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 129 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I don't consider this a blitz v. prime position. One obvious way to support this is if it goes DT and we roll [51] we should play 24/18 which means we really aren't blitzing.

Stick

Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action

<uknaao$621c$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Blitz versus prime cube action
Date: Tue, 5 Dec 2023 08:58:47 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 5 Dec 2023 13:58 UTC

XGID=abB-BBC-----cE-----cbbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 129 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I passed this cube, and was amazed to see how big a take XG thought
it was. If X's 2pt is upgraded to his 3pt, then the rollout indicates
a pass (see variant below).

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.69% (G:23.53% B:2.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.31% (G:8.07% B:0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.74% (G:23.77% B:2.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.26% (G:7.98% B:0.27%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.744 (-0.026)
Double/Take: +0.770
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.230)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.016 (+0.728..+0.761)
Confidence Double: ± 0.022 (+0.748..+0.793)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=ab-BBBC-----cE-----cbbb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O X |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X O |
| O | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 131 O: 154 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.35% (G:25.45% B:2.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.65% (G:6.62% B:0.27%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.52% (G:25.23% B:2.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.48% (G:6.64% B:0.22%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.889 (-0.111)
Double/Take: +1.049 (+0.049)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.879..+0.900)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.032..+1.066)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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