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The study of non-linear physics is like the study of non-elephant biology.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Stay back or come out?

SubjectAuthor
* Stay back or come out?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Stay back or come out?Timothy Chow

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Stay back or come out?

<uknak4$621c$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Stay back or come out?
Date: Tue, 5 Dec 2023 09:03:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 5 Dec 2023 14:03 UTC

XGID=--B-BBB-B---bB---bBdb-babA:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Stay back or come out?

<uksm7s$1a3ll$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Stay back or come out?
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2023 09:52:44 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 7 Dec 2023 14:52 UTC

XGID=--B-BBB-B---bB---bBdb-babA:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 137 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

In general, staying back generates more opportunities to get and
hit a shot, but the straggler is more vulnerable to getting attacked.
Here, O's board is almost as strong as X's, and the risk of getting
attacked forces X to run the straggler. But see the variant below,
where staying back still leads to more gammon losses, but XG thinks
it wins enough extra games to compensate.

1. Rollout¹ Bar/16 eq:-0.410
Player: 30.65% (G:4.28% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 69.35% (G:17.00% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.416..-0.403) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/3 eq:-0.556 (-0.146)
Player: 29.25% (G:4.43% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 70.75% (G:27.88% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.562..-0.550) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BABBB-A---bB---bBdb-babA:1:1:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O O O |
| X O X | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 86 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 54

1. Rollout¹ Bar/21 8/3 eq:-0.410
Player: 33.34% (G:5.05% B:0.13%)
Opponent: 66.66% (G:20.83% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.415..-0.404) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ Bar/16 eq:-0.444 (-0.034)
Player: 30.16% (G:4.51% B:0.17%)
Opponent: 69.84% (G:17.70% B:0.31%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (-0.449..-0.438) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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