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Hit or play safe?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or play safe?
Date: Thu, 7 Dec 2023 09:55:06 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 7 Dec 2023 14:55 UTC

XGID=--aBBCCB--A-----bbbbcBba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X O O |
| O O O | | O O X O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| X | | X X X X |
| X X | | X X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 113 O: 106 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 65

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or play safe?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or play safe?
Date: Tue, 12 Dec 2023 09:46:00 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 12 Dec 2023 14:46 UTC

XGID=--aBBCCB--A-----bbbbcBba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:0:10

XG regards every play here to be at least a double whopper, except
for the hit-and-split play of 21/15 7/2*.

1. Rollout¹ 21/15 7/2* eq:+0.265
Player: 58.44% (G:19.42% B:0.91%)
Opponent: 41.56% (G:19.63% B:2.85%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.257..+0.274) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/1 eq:+0.026 (-0.239)
Player: 51.34% (G:8.53% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 48.66% (G:6.37% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.015..+0.037) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 10/4 7/2* eq:-0.020 (-0.285)
Player: 49.11% (G:14.07% B:0.33%)
Opponent: 50.89% (G:10.11% B:0.34%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.031..-0.009) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Nice guys don't finish nice.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit or play safe?

Subject	Author
Hit or play safe?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Hit or play safe?	Timothy Chow