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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 43 to play

SubjectAuthor
* 43 to playTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 43 to playTimothy Chow

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43 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 43 to play
Date: Sat, 9 Dec 2023 10:59:08 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 9 Dec 2023 15:59 UTC

XGID=-b--A-D-E--BcBa--abbbb--A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 43

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 43 to play

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 43 to play
Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2023 09:48:21 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 13 Dec 2023 14:48 UTC

XGID=-b--A-D-E--BcBa--abbbb--A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 150 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 43

Here's another case where Magriel's safe/bold criteria induced me to
play the safe 11/4. However, X is the underdog and should be willing
to take some risks. This is shaping up to be a priming battle, and
slotting 8/5 has a very big upside if X is missed, especially since
that ugly stack of 5 checkers in the 8pt isn't doing much for X.

Even after seeing this rollout, I was surprised to see that the XG
rollout favors slotting even in the variant position below. (In this
variant, XG 4-ply favors the safe 11/4.)

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/4 eq:-0.162
Player: 38.54% (G:12.43% B:0.77%)
Opponent: 61.46% (G:19.56% B:1.04%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.171..-0.152) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/3 eq:-0.240 (-0.079)
Player: 36.57% (G:11.29% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 63.43% (G:21.78% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.250..-0.230) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 11/4 eq:-0.276 (-0.115)
Player: 34.31% (G:10.52% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 65.69% (G:19.10% B:0.78%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.286..-0.267) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-aa-A-D-E--BcBa--abbbb--A-:1:1:1:43:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O O | | O O O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| X | | |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X | +---+
| O X X | | X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 149 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 43

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 8/4 eq:-0.282
Player: 35.50% (G:10.65% B:0.58%)
Opponent: 64.50% (G:22.48% B:1.30%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.292..-0.272) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 11/4 eq:-0.316 (-0.033)
Player: 32.90% (G:10.34% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 67.10% (G:19.31% B:0.87%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.326..-0.306) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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