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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Subject: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:16 UTC

Who is the equity favourite after my play?
Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.

Paul

XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 21

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Thu, 14 Dec 2023 00:30 UTC

On Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 7:16:40 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Who is the equity favourite after my play?
> Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.
>
> Paul
>
> XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 21

Not you. Maybe if you had rolled [62] or [61]

Stick

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
Date: Thu, 14 Dec 2023 08:26:59 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 14 Dec 2023 13:26 UTC

On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Who is the equity favourite after my play?

After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
about 10 pips more than that.

An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
close.

> Paul
>
> XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
>
> X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 21
>

---
Tim Chow

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 14 Dec 2023 23:10 UTC

On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 12:30:28 AM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Wednesday, December 13, 2023 at 7:16:40 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Who is the equity favourite after my play?
> > Perhaps interesting for those who like to make settlements.
> >
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X X | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X to play 21
> Not you. Maybe if you had rolled [62] or [61]
>
> Stick

Hmm. If I remember rightly, XG made me a 0.025 favourite.

Paul

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Thu, 14 Dec 2023 23:13 UTC

On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 1:27:02 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Who is the equity favourite after my play?
> After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
> about 10 pips more than that.
>
> An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
> than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
> on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
> I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
> close.
> > Paul
> >
> > XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
> >
> > X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O O O |
> > | | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X X X | +---+
> > | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> > | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > X to play 21

If it's a close game when you don't consider the cube
then my cube ownership makes me an equity favourite.
I didn't do a rollout but I doubt that this is necessary for this position.
I think XG said my position was 0.025

Paul

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Fri, 15 Dec 2023 07:14 UTC

On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 6:13:46 PM UTC-5, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Thursday, December 14, 2023 at 1:27:02 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > On 12/13/2023 7:16 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > > Who is the equity favourite after my play?
> > After your roll, your raw pip count is 48, and your EPC is probably
> > about 10 pips more than that.
> >
> > An 8-roll position has an EPC of 57. O's position is a little worse
> > than that, but not much worse. For the equity to be equal, the player
> > on roll should be about 4 pips behind. So is O's EPC 62 or higher?
> > I'd guess no, meaning that O is the equity favorite, but it looks
> > close.
> > > Paul
> > >
> > > XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
> > >
> > > X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
> > > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> > > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > > | O | | O O O O |
> > > | | | O O O O |
> > > | | | O O O O |
> > > | | | O O |
> > > | | | |
> > > | |BAR| |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | |
> > > | | | X X X | +---+
> > > | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> > > | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> > > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > > Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> > > Cube: 4, X own cube
> > > X to play 21
> If it's a close game when you don't consider the cube
> then my cube ownership makes me an equity favourite.
> I didn't do a rollout but I doubt that this is necessary for this position.
> I think XG said my position was 0.025
>
> Paul

Not sure what you're looking at but not what I'm seeing. You are only a slight equity dog according to XG thanks to cube ownership. Your winning chances are only 42.4%.

Stick

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2023 09:33:31 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Dec 2023 14:33 UTC

On 12/14/2023 6:13 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

> I think XG said my position was 0.025

XG 4-ply evaluation says -0.025 so maybe you misread the sign?

XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
| | | X X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 21

1. 4-ply 2/Off 1/Off eq:-0.025
Player: 42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent: 57.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that

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Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2023 15:04:51 -0800 (PST)
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Subject: Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 16 Dec 2023 23:04 UTC

On Friday, December 15, 2023 at 2:33:35 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 12/14/2023 6:13 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> > I think XG said my position was 0.025
> XG 4-ply evaluation says -0.025 so maybe you misread the sign?

No, I think I read the sign correctly, but simply misremembered.
I was somehow struck by how close to zero the equities are, but
I forgot the direction.
Suppose we switch places and XG takes the underdog side.
I wonder what sort of skill differential is needed for XG to become
a favourite even with the disadvantage.
I would imagine XG is a favourite against anyone with a 5.0 PR or worse
because there's a lot of skill here and XG will play very close to perfectly.

A wild guess is that the break even point is 3.5.

Any other opinions?

I'll repeat the question. Suppose we turn the board around so that XG takes my side.
How weak does XG's opponent have to be for XG's greater skill to make XG
an equity favourite?

Paul

> XGID=-CCBBBC----------a---ccdd-:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O O O |
> | | | O O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X X | +---+
> | | | X X X X X X | | 4 |
> | | | X X X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 51 O: 41 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 4, X own cube
> X to play 21
> 1. 4-ply 2/Off 1/Off eq:-0.025
> Player: 42.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
> Opponent: 57.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Subject	Author
Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	Stick Rice
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	Timothy Chow
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	Stick Rice
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	Timothy Chow
Re: Yes, I know, but I didn't ask you that	peps...@gmail.com