Message-ID:

Confidence is the feeling you have before you understand the situation.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: I wasn't at a Safari recently

I wasn't at a Safari recently

<f5bbf431-7b7c-4f80-b7fe-921567191396n@googlegroups.com>

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=13219&group=rec.games.backgammon#13219

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

X-Received: by 2002:a05:622a:1888:b0:426:1a64:c69e with SMTP id v8-20020a05622a188800b004261a64c69emr45070qtc.1.1702759835621;
Sat, 16 Dec 2023 12:50:35 -0800 (PST)
X-Received: by 2002:a0c:ee2a:0:b0:67a:befb:a904 with SMTP id
l10-20020a0cee2a000000b0067abefba904mr330519qvs.2.1702759835313; Sat, 16 Dec
2023 12:50:35 -0800 (PST)
Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!usenet.goja.nl.eu.org!3.eu.feeder.erje.net!feeder.erje.net!proxad.net!feeder1-2.proxad.net!209.85.160.216.MISMATCH!news-out.google.com!nntp.google.com!postnews.google.com!google-groups.googlegroups.com!not-for-mail
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2023 12:50:35 -0800 (PST)
Injection-Info: google-groups.googlegroups.com; posting-host=217.155.59.144; posting-account=X1j9wgoAAADLt4UnZrIneT3jwl9HvLMd
NNTP-Posting-Host: 217.155.59.144
User-Agent: G2/1.0
MIME-Version: 1.0
Message-ID: <f5bbf431-7b7c-4f80-b7fe-921567191396n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: I wasn't at a Safari recently
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
Injection-Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2023 20:50:35 +0000
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"

by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 16 Dec 2023 20:50 UTC

Since I wasn't at a Safari, I was not surprised by Gnu.
But I was surprised by XG.
I considered that I had the game won and needed to maximise
my gammon chances and that XG would would be working to
save the gammon. Consequently, I didn't think that XG would volunteer
a shot. However, the equities which are > -1 indicate that I was too
optimistic about the gammon.
I know that the analysis says that the decision to volunteer a shot is too
close to call but I don't see the upside of volunteering a shot.
After all, I'm very unlikely to get a gammon if I don't hit anything more.

Paul

XGID=--a-BBCBBB------A--d-ddAb-:2:-1:-1:52:4:4:0:11:10

X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:4 O:4 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O O X |
| O O O | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X X X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X | | 4 |
| O | | X X X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 77 O: 123 X-O: 4-4/11
Cube: 4, X own cube
X to play 52

1. XG Roller+ 6/1 4/2* eq:-0.890
Player: 9.03% (G:0.65% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 90.97% (G:12.60% B:0.39%)

2. XG Roller+ 6/4 6/1 eq:-0.897 (-0.007)
Player: 8.13% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 91.87% (G:10.91% B:0.36%)

3. XG Roller+ 6/1 3/1 eq:-0.912 (-0.022)
Player: 7.90% (G:0.82% B:0.01%)
Opponent: 92.10% (G:11.95% B:0.35%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: I wasn't at a Safari recently

<ullhgh$2k663$1@dont-email.me>

copy mid

https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=13221&group=rec.games.backgammon#13221

copy link Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon

Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!news.neodome.net!news.mixmin.net!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: I wasn't at a Safari recently
Date: Sat, 16 Dec 2023 20:05:19 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
Lines: 19
Message-ID: <ullhgh$2k663$1@dont-email.me>
References: <f5bbf431-7b7c-4f80-b7fe-921567191396n@googlegroups.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8; format=flowed
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Injection-Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2023 01:05:21 -0000 (UTC)
Injection-Info: dont-email.me; posting-host="9684d40501d6d33fc12a5c62433f87e1";
logging-data="2758851"; mail-complaints-to="abuse@eternal-september.org"; posting-account="U2FsdGVkX1/oQoIpl0pS0Y8stC1wegtb5xnaSt9akB8="
User-Agent: Mozilla Thunderbird
Cancel-Lock: sha1:fVpyGTpySaGWcgEdos5Mm9hvAuE=
In-Reply-To: <f5bbf431-7b7c-4f80-b7fe-921567191396n@googlegroups.com>
Content-Language: en-US

by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 17 Dec 2023 01:05 UTC

On 12/16/2023 3:50 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I know that the analysis says that the decision to volunteer a shot is too
> close to call but I don't see the upside of volunteering a shot.
> After all, I'm very unlikely to get a gammon if I don't hit anything more.

The way I would analyze this position is to start by pretending
that it's DMP. At DMP, your opponent *wants* to get hit, because
if your opponent can anchor, then her winning chances are better
than if she has just a lone checker trapped behind your six-prime.
You can confirm this by playing 6/1 4/2* for your opponent, and
checking that the computer thinks that it would be unlucky for
you to hit from the bar.

You're correct that the downside of hitting is that it leads to
more gammon losses for your opponent. So at a normal score, it's
a delicate tradeoff between wins and gammons.

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
I wasn't at a Safari recently	peps...@gmail.com
Re: I wasn't at a Safari recently	Timothy Chow