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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: From the same game as the last problem

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* From the same game as the last problemTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: From the same game as the last problemTimothy Chow

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From the same game as the last problem

<ulhojm$1ubgd$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: From the same game as the last problem
Date: Fri, 15 Dec 2023 09:41:57 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 15 Dec 2023 14:41 UTC

XGID=--BaBDCaBB-------------cj-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 84 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: From the same game as the last problem

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: From the same game as the last problem
Date: Sun, 17 Dec 2023 09:31:36 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 17 Dec 2023 14:31 UTC

XGID=--BaBDCaBB-------------cj-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 84 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

Here again, hitting 9/3* is clear, but I was startled to see that
XG favors 5/1 with the 4. Does X *want* to get hit? No, but he *does*
want to keep as many builders as possible for the 3pt. See the variant
below in which a spare has been shifted from the 5pt to the 6pt.

1. Rollout¹ 9/3* 5/1 eq:+0.942
Player: 84.69% (G:29.81% B:0.88%)
Opponent: 15.31% (G:2.02% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.936..+0.947) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3* 6/2 eq:+0.869 (-0.073)
Player: 84.20% (G:22.92% B:0.61%)
Opponent: 15.80% (G:1.03% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.864..+0.874) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 9/3* 8/4 eq:+0.845 (-0.097)
Player: 82.61% (G:25.06% B:0.71%)
Opponent: 17.39% (G:1.95% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.840..+0.850) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 9/5 9/3* eq:+0.842 (-0.100)
Player: 84.19% (G:20.56% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 15.81% (G:0.62% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.837..+0.847) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--BaBCDaBB-------------cj-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O O | | 2 |
| | | O O | +---+
| | | O |
| | | 10 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| X X O | | X X X O X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 56 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. Rollout¹ 9/3* 6/2 eq:+0.926
Player: 86.02% (G:24.76% B:0.65%)
Opponent: 13.98% (G:0.98% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.921..+0.931) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/3* 5/1 eq:+0.899 (-0.027)
Player: 83.24% (G:28.85% B:0.78%)
Opponent: 16.76% (G:1.88% B:0.00%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.894..+0.903) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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