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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Early blitz cube 3

SubjectAuthor
* Early blitz cube 3Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Early blitz cube 3Timothy Chow

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Early blitz cube 3

<um1in9$13sqj$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Early blitz cube 3
Date: Thu, 21 Dec 2023 09:39:36 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 21 Dec 2023 14:39 UTC

Well, it's not so early in the game, actually, but whatever.

XGID=aa-C-BC----BbDb-Ac-bbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Early blitz cube 3

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Early blitz cube 3
Date: Sun, 24 Dec 2023 19:34:05 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 25 Dec 2023 00:34 UTC

XGID=aa-C-BC----BbDb-Ac-bbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I question whether it's humanly possible to judge accurately OTB
both the given position and the variant below, which differs by just
one pip.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 70.97% (G:18.73% B:0.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.03% (G:4.76% B:0.17%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.02% (G:18.80% B:0.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.98% (G:4.93% B:0.20%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.851 (-0.070)
Double/Take: +0.921
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.079)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.840..+0.863)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.903..+0.939)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=aa-C-BC----BbDbA-c-bbb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X O | | O O O |
| X O O | | O O O |
| X O | | |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| O X | | X X X |
| O X | | X X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 151 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.70% (G:19.67% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.30% (G:4.58% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.84% (G:20.25% B:0.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.16% (G:4.78% B:0.23%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.894 (-0.106)
Double/Take: +1.002 (+0.002)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.884..+0.905)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.986..+1.017)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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