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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Make the 4pt?

SubjectAuthor
* Make the 4pt?Timothy Chow
`* Rollout: Make the 4pt?Timothy Chow
 `* Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?Stick Rice
  `- Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?peps...@gmail.com

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Make the 4pt?

<um6pd5$238n9$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Make the 4pt?
Date: Sat, 23 Dec 2023 09:04:21 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 23 Dec 2023 14:04 UTC

XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Make the 4pt?

<umc9me$33ftd$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Make the 4pt?
Date: Mon, 25 Dec 2023 11:12:58 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 25 Dec 2023 16:12 UTC

XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O X O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good
jumping-out play (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O X O X X |
| O O | | O X O |
| O | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O X | | X |
| O X X | | X |
| O X X X X | | X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 62

1. Rollout¹ 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]

2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?

<bf0b9f3b-35c9-45d9-8080-1dae0d8cab2an@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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 by: Stick Rice - Mon, 1 Jan 2024 19:32 UTC

On Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:13:06 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O X O X |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | O | | O X O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62
> The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
> jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
> XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good
> jumping-out play (see variant).
>
> 1. Rollout¹ 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
> Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
> Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
> Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
> Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
> Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------
> Variant
> -------
>
> XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | O O | | O X O X X |
> | O O | | O X O |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | X |
> | O X | | X |
> | O X X | | X |
> | O X X X X | | X O |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X to play 62
> 1. Rollout¹ 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
> Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
> Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
> Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]
>
> 2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
> Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
> Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
> Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]
>
> ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

I feel like that was phrased incorrectly. To me it should be 'the main alternative to jumping out and making the bar point is making the 4pt'.

Stick

Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?

<03c7641b-9a8f-4cbb-a1d6-305f597aeb57n@googlegroups.com>

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Subject: Re: Rollout: Make the 4pt?
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 1 Jan 2024 21:58 UTC

On Monday, January 1, 2024 at 7:32:06 PM UTC, Stick Rice wrote:
> On Monday, December 25, 2023 at 11:13:06 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> > XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cCc-A--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
> >
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O X O X |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | O | | O X O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X X | | X |
> > | O X X X X | | X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 166 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 62
> > The main alternative to making the 4pt is to cover the bar point and
> > jump a back checker out. This might seem to be a close decision, but
> > XG says it's not. It would be a different story if there were no good
> > jumping-out play (see variant).
> >
> > 1. Rollout¹ 20/14 9/7 eq:-0.394
> > Player: 41.32% (G:8.77% B:0.42%)
> > Opponent: 58.68% (G:18.60% B:0.77%)
> > Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.410..-0.378) - [100.0%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.490 (-0.096)
> > Player: 38.38% (G:8.14% B:0.32%)
> > Opponent: 61.62% (G:17.03% B:0.51%)
> > Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.506..-0.475) - [0.0%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
> >
> > -------
> > Variant
> > -------
> >
> > XGID=--a---DACBA-c--b-c-cBcAA--:0:0:1:62:0:0:0:0:10
> > Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> > +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> > | O O | | O X O X X |
> > | O O | | O X O |
> > | O | | O O |
> > | | | |
> > | | | |
> > | |BAR| |
> > | | | |
> > | | | X |
> > | O X | | X |
> > | O X X | | X |
> > | O X X X X | | X O |
> > +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> > Pip count X: 168 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
> > Cube: 1
> > X to play 62
> > 1. Rollout¹ 22/16 9/7 eq:-0.486
> > Player: 39.68% (G:8.51% B:0.38%)
> > Opponent: 60.32% (G:21.66% B:0.98%)
> > Confidence: ±0.017 (-0.502..-0.469) - [89.5%]
> >
> > 2. Rollout¹ 10/4 6/4 eq:-0.501 (-0.015)
> > Player: 38.86% (G:8.16% B:0.30%)
> > Opponent: 61.14% (G:19.13% B:0.63%)
> > Confidence: ±0.016 (-0.516..-0.485) - [10.5%]
> >
> > ¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> > Dice Seed: 271828
> > Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> >
> > eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
> >
> > ---
> > Tim Chow
> I feel like that was phrased incorrectly. To me it should be 'the main alternative to jumping out and making the bar point is making the 4pt'.
The way Tim phrased it is consistent with the subject header. You consider making the 4 point because that's kind of like the title of the post.
And then part of that consideration is to consider alternatives to making the 4 point. Ok. So you could argue that his heading should be "Jump out and make the bar point?" But if Tim's question headings always made the best suggestion, the audience would kind of be clued in.

Paul

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