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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Holding game cube

SubjectAuthor
* Holding game cubeTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: Holding game cubeTimothy Chow

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Holding game cube

<umc9ol$33ftd$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Holding game cube
Date: Mon, 25 Dec 2023 11:14:12 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 25 Dec 2023 16:14 UTC

XGID=-CBCabC-B---B-----bbbcba--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 74 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Holding game cube

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Holding game cube
Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2023 10:00:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 28 Dec 2023 15:00 UTC

XGID=-CBCabC-B---B-----bbbcba--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 74 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

I thought this position was pretty bleak for O, since X's outfield
point on the 12pt is seven pips away, which does not promise O very
many shots. But O's offensive position is strong, and X's buried
checkers are bad for X. O's extra checker back will help generate
more shots for O, and is not especially vulnerable to being attacked.

In the variant, I have moved a dead checker from X's 1pt to his 6pt,
and that changes the bot verdict considerably.

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 71.13% (G:12.28% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.87% (G:3.82% B:0.14%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.84% (G:13.11% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.16% (G:3.87% B:0.15%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.743 (-0.137)
Redouble/Take: +0.880
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.120)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.006 (+0.737..+0.749)
Confidence Double: ± 0.009 (+0.871..+0.888)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBCabD-B---B-----bbbcba--:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X X | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X O O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 79 O: 117 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 74.11% (G:10.61% B:0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.89% (G:3.14% B:0.09%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.96% (G:11.21% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.04% (G:3.14% B:0.09%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.816 (-0.178)
Redouble/Take: +0.994
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.006)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.809..+0.824)
Confidence Double: ± 0.008 (+0.986..+1.002)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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