I'm puzzled as to why my double below is so weak. 3s look crushing
and even my 25% of dances leave the game fairly even with XG's evaluation
for me being -0.2.
Hits look like big market losers and the opponent has an enormous
amount of work to do to escape my prime.
Furthermore, I'm behind in the match which seems to suggest doubling
more readily than for money.
Why is the double bad? I was very confident in the double and unsure
whether XG would even take.
Interestingly, the extra outfield blot doesn't increase my hitting probability
Any 3 including combos hits -- 7/18 probability, and this would be true
even if XG's outfield blot was removed.

Paul

XGID=-a--BBBBC-----baAb-ccbaB-A:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O X O | | O O O O X |
| O O | | O O O X |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | | +---+
| X X | | X X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 155 O: 116 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 56.57% (G:14.64% B:0.75%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.43% (G:17.34% B:1.02%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.112, Double=+0.349

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.415
Redouble/Take: +0.248 (-0.167)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.585)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 18.2%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

On 1/1/2024 4:26 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I'm puzzled as to why my double below is so weak. 3s look crushing
> and even my 25% of dances leave the game fairly even with XG's evaluation
> for me being -0.2.
> Hits look like big market losers and the opponent has an enormous
> amount of work to do to escape my prime.
> Furthermore, I'm behind in the match which seems to suggest doubling
> more readily than for money.
> Why is the double bad? I was very confident in the double and unsure
> whether XG would even take.

You're right that the score makes you a lot more eager to redouble
than for money.

But I think what you may be underestimating is your opponent's
counter-priming potential. Let's say you roll 32, which you'd be pretty
happy with since it enters with a hit. You play bar/22* 8/6, and now
your opponent has some rolls that enter and hit. Say your opponent
rolls 32 as well, and hits. You still have an advantage but not much
of one, because of your opponent's counter-priming potential.

---
Tim Chow