novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Re: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?

What does O'Hagan's Law say?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: What does O'Hagan's Law say?
Date: Wed, 3 Jan 2024 13:44:11 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 3 Jan 2024 18:44 UTC

XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X X X X |
| O X | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Re: What does O'Hagan's Law say?

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Subject: Re: What does O'Hagan's Law say?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Wed, 3 Jan 2024 22:50 UTC

On Wednesday, January 3, 2024 at 1:44:13 PM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

O'Hagan's Law clearly says to double here. I think it would have been a tougher decision if we were looking at redoubling.

Stick

Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?
Date: Fri, 5 Jan 2024 09:02:50 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 5 Jan 2024 14:02 UTC

XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

O'Hagan's Law says that if you have at least a 25% chance of losing
your market, and the rest of the time you're still doing okay, then
it's an initial double. Here, X has 15 rolls that hit, and that will
lose X's market unless O rolls a joker from the bar (a nondescript
entering roll won't cut it). So that's well over 25%. As for the rest
of the time, X has no disaster rolls. By O'Hagan's Law, this should
be an initial double, and the rollout confirms that prediction.

Stick mentioned redoubling. O'Hagan's Law says you need a higher chance
of losing your market to redouble. Exactly how much higher, I don't
know if O'Hagan has an exact threshold, but maybe 30%? In any case, I
suspect that there are enough market losing sequences here to indicate
a redouble according to O'Hagan; however, the rollout says it's not
quite a redouble.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 62.06% (G:20.74% B:0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.94% (G:3.02% B:0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.459 (-0.086)
Double/Take: +0.545
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.455)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.450..+0.467)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------------
X owning cube
-------------

XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X |
| X O O | | O |
| X O | | O |
| X | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O | | X | +---+
| O | | X X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 61.83% (G:20.79% B:0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.17% (G:3.02% B:0.10%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.581
Redouble/Take: +0.545 (-0.036)
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.419)

Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.9%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.574..+0.588)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?

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Subject: Re: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?
From: bananabo...@gmail.com (Stick Rice)
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by: Stick Rice - Fri, 5 Jan 2024 22:27 UTC

On Friday, January 5, 2024 at 9:02:53 AM UTC-5, Timothy Chow wrote:
> XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X |
> | O | | X X X X |
> | O X | | X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> O'Hagan's Law says that if you have at least a 25% chance of losing
> your market, and the rest of the time you're still doing okay, then
> it's an initial double. Here, X has 15 rolls that hit, and that will
> lose X's market unless O rolls a joker from the bar (a nondescript
> entering roll won't cut it). So that's well over 25%. As for the rest
> of the time, X has no disaster rolls. By O'Hagan's Law, this should
> be an initial double, and the rollout confirms that prediction.
>
> Stick mentioned redoubling. O'Hagan's Law says you need a higher chance
> of losing your market to redouble. Exactly how much higher, I don't
> know if O'Hagan has an exact threshold, but maybe 30%? In any case, I
> suspect that there are enough market losing sequences here to indicate
> a redouble according to O'Hagan; however, the rollout says it's not
> quite a redouble.
>
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 62.06% (G:20.74% B:0.32%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 37.94% (G:3.02% B:0.08%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.459 (-0.086)
> Double/Take: +0.545
> Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.455)
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Take
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.450..+0.467)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> -------------
> X owning cube
> -------------
>
> XGID=---BBBC-A---cDb--c-fa---A-:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O O | | O O X |
> | X O O | | O |
> | X O | | O |
> | X | | O |
> | | | 6 |
> | |BAR| |
> | | | |
> | | | |
> | O | | X | +---+
> | O | | X X X X | | 2 |
> | O X | | X X X X | +---+
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 126 O: 126 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 2, X own cube
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No redouble
> Player Winning Chances: 61.83% (G:20.79% B:0.31%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 38.17% (G:3.02% B:0.10%)
> Redouble/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 62.42% (G:20.33% B:0.33%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 37.58% (G:3.00% B:0.10%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No redouble: +0.581
> Redouble/Take: +0.545 (-0.036)
> Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.419)
>
> Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
> Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 7.9%
>
> Rollout:
> 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.574..+0.588)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.531..+0.558)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release
>
> ---
> Tim Chow

For redoubling using O'Hagan's Law we need 11-12 MLS. (instead of 9 with the centered cube)

Stick

Surly to bed, surly to rise, makes you about average.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Re: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?

Subject	Author
What does O'Hagan's Law say?	Timothy Chow
Re: What does O'Hagan's Law say?	Stick Rice
Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?	Timothy Chow
Re: Rollout: What does O'Hagan's Law say?	Stick Rice