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interests / rec.games.backgammon / A modest post

SubjectAuthor
* A modest postpeps...@gmail.com
`* Re: A modest postTimothy Chow
 `- Re: A modest postpeps...@gmail.com

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A modest post

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Subject: A modest post
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 6 Jan 2024 20:23 UTC

Here, I executed a match double accurately.
For money it would be a massive beaver.
Intuitively, I was confident in it based on the fact that
I have a few immediate wins and that losing the chance of
winning the match from 11A 1A is not much of a loss
compared to what I have to gain.
METs can be used to make the computation precise but
I was just using intuition.
I'm surprised that holding isn't more of an error than it is.
BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
checker play was so atrocious.

Paul

XGID=-BC-----------------a-aa--:3:1:1:00:0:2:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:0 O:2 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X | +---+
| | | X X | | 8 |
| | | X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 8 O: 10 X-O: 0-2/11
Cube: 8, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 32.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 67.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=-0.356, Double=-0.285

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: -0.322 (-0.037)
Redouble/Take: -0.285
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+1.285)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: A modest post

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A modest post
Date: Sat, 6 Jan 2024 16:26:18 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 6 Jan 2024 21:26 UTC

On 1/6/2024 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> Here, I executed a match double accurately.

Nice play!

> BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
> earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
> checker play was so atrocious.

You must have had an earlier redouble to 4. But I guess you mean
you did not miss any redoubles to 16.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A modest post

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Subject: Re: A modest post
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 by: peps...@gmail.com - Sat, 6 Jan 2024 23:17 UTC

On Saturday, January 6, 2024 at 9:26:21 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 1/6/2024 3:23 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > Here, I executed a match double accurately.
> Nice play!
> > BTW, my cube action was perfect in this game -- I had no
> > earlier redouble. My PR sucked though because my
> > checker play was so atrocious.
> You must have had an earlier redouble to 4. But I guess you mean
> you did not miss any redoubles to 16.

Yes, I meant that I didn't miss any redouble to 16. Getting the cube action right,
owning the 8 cube, is extremely difficult normally but there's a huge amount of
luck involved (luck in correct play that is, rather than luck in result). The luck is
in making the right guess when you're in coin toss mode and in being faced with
simple positions.

Paul

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