novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: Doubling from the bar 2

Doubling from the bar 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Doubling from the bar 2
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2024 09:15:39 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 8 Jan 2024 14:15 UTC

XGID=-BB-BCBb-----B--A--b-abddA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X |
| O | | X X X X X |
| O | | X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 108 O: 70 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Doubling from the bar 2

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: Doubling from the bar 2
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 11 Jan 2024 03:13 UTC

XGID=-BB-BCBb-----B--A--b-abddA:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

It's pretty easy to judge that if X hits then he almost always loses
his market, but I was concerned that if I danced then I would be in
big trouble. I'm almost 40 pips down, after all. But it's not as bad
as I thought. O might not be able to clean up her blot, and still has
quite a lot of work to do even if she does clean up the blot. Once one
sees that, it becomes a double per O'Hagan's Law.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 64.41% (G:21.64% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.59% (G:6.86% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.65% (G:21.50% B:0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.35% (G:6.81% B:0.03%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.498 (-0.138)
Double/Take: +0.636
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.364)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.010 (+0.488..+0.508)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.621..+0.650)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Among the lucky, you are the chosen one.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Doubling from the bar 2

Subject	Author
Doubling from the bar 2	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Doubling from the bar 2	Timothy Chow