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interests / rec.games.backgammon / A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

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Subject: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Mon, 15 Jan 2024 22:19 UTC

I've been dinged a lot by XG for cashing when too good.
Here, I decided to play on but I didn't give the matter enough thought.
If I counted correctly, I have a 1/6 chance of being forced to blot in
my inner board with the anti-jokers being 61/62/64.
Putting it another way, when I roll a 6, I'm a favourite to blot my inner board.
But the probability of XG hitting me in the next sequence must be
significantly more than the 5% given by those anti-jokers. There are quite
a few other rolls which don't blot in the inner board but fail to close out.
These rolls give XG indirect shots.
I think that if I had thought all this through, I would have cashed.
But it turns out that playing on is very slightly correct which surprises
me given the above analysis.
I suppose 12% gammons isn't so few and the gammon value might be
elevated.

Paul

XGID=aABBCBC------A---c-dbAcb--:0:0:1:00:8:6:0:11:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:8 O:6 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 96 X-O: 8-6/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in 4-ply
Player Winning Chances: 92.82% (G:12.01% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.18% (G:1.15% B:0.04%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.985, Double=+2.043

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.013
Double/Take: +1.950 (+0.937)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.013)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.4%

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision
Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2024 08:16:06 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 16 Jan 2024 13:16 UTC

On 1/15/2024 5:19 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> But it turns out that playing on is very slightly correct which surprises
> me given the above analysis.

The money-game rollout below says to cash, so it has something to do
with the match score and the MET.

XGID=aABBCBC------A---c-dbAcb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 92.41% (G:12.76% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.59% (G:0.79% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 92.99% (G:12.59% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.01% (G:1.21% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.995 (-0.005)
Double/Take: +1.900 (+0.900)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.994..+0.997)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+1.896..+1.903)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

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Subject: Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Tue, 16 Jan 2024 16:33 UTC

On Tuesday, January 16, 2024 at 1:16:10 PM UTC, Timothy Chow wrote:
> On 1/15/2024 5:19 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> > But it turns out that playing on is very slightly correct which surprises
> > me given the above analysis.
> The money-game rollout below says to cash, so it has something to do
> with the match score and the MET.
>
> XGID=aABBCBC------A---c-dbAcb--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
>
> Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
> +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
> | X O | | O O X O O |
> | O | | O O O O |
> | O | | O O |
> | | | O |
> | | | |
> | |BAR| |
> | | O | |
> | | | |
> | | | X X |
> | | | X X X X X |
> | | | X X X X X X |
> +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
> Pip count X: 85 O: 96 X-O: 0-0
> Cube: 1
> X on roll, cube action
> Analyzed in Rollout
> No double
> Player Winning Chances: 92.41% (G:12.76% B:0.08%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 7.59% (G:0.79% B:0.02%)
> Double/Take
> Player Winning Chances: 92.99% (G:12.59% B:0.08%)
> Opponent Winning Chances: 7.01% (G:1.21% B:0.05%)
>
> Cubeful Equities:
> No double: +0.995 (-0.005)
> Double/Take: +1.900 (+0.900)
> Double/Pass: +1.000
>
> Best Cube action: Double / Pass
>
> Rollout:
> 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
> Dice Seed: 271828
> Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
> Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.994..+0.997)
> Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+1.896..+1.903)
>
> eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

Thanks.
But I haven't been doing rollouts.
So isn't it possible that you're reporting an analysis/rollout difference
rather than a match/money difference?

Paul

Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision
Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2024 09:07:57 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 17 Jan 2024 14:07 UTC

On 1/16/2024 11:33 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> But I haven't been doing rollouts.
> So isn't it possible that you're reporting an analysis/rollout difference
> rather than a match/money difference?

I did a match score rollout as well and it confirmed the
4-ply analysis. Maybe I'll post it later, but I have to
run now.

---
Tim Chow

Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision
Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2024 08:30:31 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Thu, 18 Jan 2024 13:30 UTC

On 1/17/2024 9:07 AM, I wrote:
> On 1/16/2024 11:33 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
>> But I haven't been doing rollouts.
>> So isn't it possible that you're reporting an analysis/rollout difference
>> rather than a match/money difference?
>
> I did a match score rollout as well and it confirmed the
> 4-ply analysis. Maybe I'll post it later, but I have to
> run now.

XGID=aABBCBC------A---c-dbAcb--:0:0:1:00:8:6:0:11:10

Score is X:8 O:6 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O O |
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | |
| | | X X |
| | | X X X X X |
| | | X X X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 85 O: 96 X-O: 8-6/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 92.50% (G:12.75% B:0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 7.50% (G:0.76% B:0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 93.19% (G:12.27% B:0.16%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 6.81% (G:1.22% B:0.05%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +1.013
Double/Take: +1.969 (+0.957)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (-0.013)

Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.3%

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.004 (+1.009..+1.016)
Confidence Double: ± 0.006 (+1.964..+1.975)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
A tedious post about a tedious cube decision	peps...@gmail.com
Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision	Timothy Chow
Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision	peps...@gmail.com
Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision	Timothy Chow
Re: A tedious post about a tedious cube decision	Timothy Chow