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Never ever be dogmatic ever!

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Subject: Never ever be dogmatic ever!
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 17 Jan 2024 13:46 UTC

This is a common type of position where a lot of non-experts go wrong.
Of course XG has a huge advantage and has a massive cash for money.

But losses by XG look very possible. Judging by XG's 86% win rate,
XG's chances of jumping the gap without leaving a direct shot are
probably only around 50/50.

I therefore think most good (but sub-expert) players would be ultra
cautious because of the match-score and wouldn't double.
But just because you should be cautious about doubling doesn't mean
you shouldn't double. And the analysis advocates doubling here.
But it is somewhat borderline.
I think Stick said that too many players basically ignore the cube
as leader in this position and wait for the cube to turn into stone.
(I can't remember the exact phrase).
Here, my cube play was perfect. I correctly took and I correctly
followed the well-known strategy of redoubling to 8 as soon as I got
a direct shot.

Paul

XGID=--BBBBC----AA-a--b-dbBacb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:6:0:11:10

X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:6 O:0 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O O O O |
| | | O O O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| X | | X X O X X | | 2 |
| X X | | X X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 72 O: 111 X-O: 6-0/11
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 86.00% (G:3.46% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 14.00% (G:0.71% B:0.01%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.741, Double=+1.276

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.916 (-0.026)
Redouble/Take: +0.942
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.058)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Re: Never ever be dogmatic ever!

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by: MK - Wed, 17 Jan 2024 17:43 UTC

On 1/17/2024 6:46 AM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:

> This is a common type of position where .....

I fail to the dogma in your post. I'm sure it's
my inability. Could you be nice to point it out?

> I think Stick said that too many players basically
> ignore the cube as leader in this position and wait
> for the cube to turn into stone. (I can't remember
> the exact phrase).

This is the real reason I responded. I used to
punnily say don't "incubate" (until it hatches:)

Who was that masked man?

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Never ever be dogmatic ever!

Subject	Author
Never ever be dogmatic ever!	peps...@gmail.com
Re: Never ever be dogmatic ever!	MK