I was proud of my take here.
I knew that being off-roll in a symmetrical position was bad and
that the position was therefore a drop at 2A 1A. But here we were
several away, 1 away. So I was sure I would take now on the basis
that (if I lose) I'm likely to get a more advantageous free drop later.
I was quite sure of this in fact.

But no, XG prefers the drop.

XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---b-db---B-:0:0:-1:00:10:3:0:11:10

X:XG Roller+ O:Daniel
Score is X:3 O:10 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X |
| X O | | O O X |
| X | | O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O | | X |
| O X | | X X O |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 163 O: 163 X-O: 3-10/11
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 52.24% (G:15.30% B:0.73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 47.76% (G:13.10% B:0.61%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.218, Double=+1.006

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.908 (-0.092)
Double/Take: +1.006 (+0.006)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

On 1/20/2024 12:43 PM, peps...@gmail.com wrote:
> I was proud of my take here.
> I knew that being off-roll in a symmetrical position was bad and
> that the position was therefore a drop at 2A 1A. But here we were
> several away, 1 away. So I was sure I would take now on the basis
> that (if I lose) I'm likely to get a more advantageous free drop later.
> I was quite sure of this in fact.
>
> But no, XG prefers the drop.

I might have taken here as well, but at this score it is important to
consider the trailer's gammon wins. At 2a1a post-Crawford, the trailer's
gammon wins are of course irrelevant, but that is not true at 8a1a.

---
Tim Chow