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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Boy, is O's board blotty!

SubjectAuthor
* Boy, is O's board blotty!Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Boy, is O's board blotty!Timothy Chow

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Boy, is O's board blotty!

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Boy, is O's board blotty!
Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2024 10:34:40 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 19 Jan 2024 15:34 UTC

XGID=-a--BCDB-b---B----Baeabba-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Boy, is O's board blotty!

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Boy, is O's board blotty!
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2024 09:37:57 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 22 Jan 2024 14:37 UTC

XGID=-a--BCDB-b---B----Baeabba-:1:1:1:42:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O O O O O O |
| X X | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X X | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X | | X X X O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 123 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 42

In the vast majority of checker-play problems that I post here, the
top play of the rollout is far ahead of the competitors (unless there
are two or more plays that are obviously very similar to each other).
This position is an exception, in that the second play of 18/14 6/4 is
not that far behind the top play of 7/3 5/3. But the main reason I'm
posting this is that OTB, I played 6/4 5/1*, hoping for a blitz. The
trouble is that the position is not particular conducive to a blitz.
X really wants to *contain* O's checker, and hitting is not the only
way to achieve that. Playing 7/3 5/3 makes a four-point board and
threatens to make a very strong five-prime. O's blotty board means
that her sixes aren't as effective as they might otherwise be.

1. Rollout¹ 7/3 5/3 eq:+0.829
Player: 69.65% (G:22.97% B:1.02%)
Opponent: 30.35% (G:9.45% B:0.09%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.819..+0.839) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/14 6/4 eq:+0.806 (-0.023)
Player: 69.37% (G:22.71% B:2.28%)
Opponent: 30.63% (G:9.36% B:0.15%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.796..+0.816) - [0.1%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/7 eq:+0.727 (-0.102)
Player: 66.94% (G:20.34% B:1.65%)
Opponent: 33.06% (G:7.96% B:0.10%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.715..+0.739) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 6/4 6/2 eq:+0.727 (-0.102)
Player: 67.14% (G:19.94% B:1.24%)
Opponent: 32.86% (G:9.26% B:0.13%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (+0.718..+0.736) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 6/4 5/1* eq:+0.696 (-0.133)
Player: 64.80% (G:20.12% B:1.18%)
Opponent: 35.20% (G:8.96% B:0.14%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.685..+0.707) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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