In the below position, it's obvious that there are only two candidate plays,
and it's also obvious that these plays lead to very different positions.

Ahah! So here's a position where backgammon expertise would be
really useful. Wouldn't it be great to have expert advice here?

Well no! Actually, it wouldn't make any difference at all.
The two plays have exactly the same equity.
All the skills, experience and knowledge enabling a player
to compare and assess the two postions are useless here.

Paul

XGID=--BBbBB-B---bD-a--bbbbb-A-:1:-1:1:64:2:10:0:11:10
X:Daniel O:XG Roller+

Score is X:2 O:10 11 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O O O X | +---+
| X O | | O O O O | | 2 |
| X | | | +---+
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | X X O X X |
| O X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 124 O: 128 X-O: 2-10/11
Cube: 2, O own cube
X to play 64

1. 4-ply 13/9 13/7 eq:-0.514
Player: 21.18% (G:4.56% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 78.82% (G:24.69% B:1.42%)

2. 4-ply 13/3 eq:-0.517 (-0.003)
Player: 21.21% (G:4.33% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 78.79% (G:18.16% B:0.64%)

3. 3-ply 13/9 8/2 eq:-0.592 (-0.078)
Player: 17.88% (G:3.71% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 82.12% (G:30.70% B:1.71%)

4. 3-ply 13/7 6/2 eq:-0.646 (-0.132)
Player: 15.73% (G:2.93% B:0.09%)
Opponent: 84.27% (G:34.16% B:1.97%)

5. 2-ply 13/7 5/1 eq:-0.656 (-0.142)
Player: 15.30% (G:2.78% B:0.10%)
Opponent: 84.70% (G:33.82% B:2.08%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2