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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Not too many choices for this 55

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* Not too many choices for this 55Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Not too many choices for this 55Timothy Chow

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Not too many choices for this 55

<up32ll$3ddd7$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Not too many choices for this 55
Date: Sat, 27 Jan 2024 09:06:45 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 27 Jan 2024 14:06 UTC

XGID=-----CBBb---eE---aBc-bb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Not too many choices for this 55

<upiqmu$2k71v$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Not too many choices for this 55
Date: Fri, 2 Feb 2024 08:29:02 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 2 Feb 2024 13:29 UTC

XGID=-----CBBb---eE---aBc-bb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 166 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

Both 6/1(2) and 18/13(2) are ugly. But 6/1(2) at least retains some
flexibility and board coverage. X is still behind in the race even
after this roll, so that argues for staying back. For comparison, see
the variant below.

1. Rollout¹ 7/2(2) 6/1(2) eq:-0.587
Player: 36.32% (G:7.96% B:0.18%)
Opponent: 63.68% (G:19.79% B:0.70%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.601..-0.573) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 18/13(2) 7/2(2) eq:-0.726 (-0.139)
Player: 33.60% (G:7.21% B:0.25%)
Opponent: 66.40% (G:22.72% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.739..-0.713) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-A---CBBb---eD---aBc-bb-A-:0:0:1:55:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O X | | O O O X |
| X X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| O | | |
| O | | |
| O | | X |
| O O X | | X X |
| O O X | | X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 154 O: 139 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 18/13(2) 7/2(2) eq:-0.613
Player: 36.12% (G:8.50% B:0.23%)
Opponent: 63.88% (G:21.09% B:0.50%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (-0.620..-0.606) - [72.7%]

2. Rollout¹ 7/2(2) 6/1(2) eq:-0.616 (-0.003)
Player: 36.25% (G:7.19% B:0.11%)
Opponent: 63.75% (G:20.51% B:0.68%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.624..-0.608) - [27.3%]

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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