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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or not? 2

SubjectAuthor
* Hit or not? 2Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit or not? 2Timothy Chow

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Hit or not? 2

<upof7d$3npuj$3@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit or not? 2
Date: Sun, 4 Feb 2024 11:49:49 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 4 Feb 2024 16:49 UTC

XGID=-a--b-EBB-B-bD---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit or not? 2

<uq044b$1f8dj$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit or not? 2
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2024 09:29:30 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Feb 2024 14:29 UTC

XGID=-a--b-EBB-B-bD---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:54:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 132 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 54

To get XG to hit, I had to make a significant change to the position:
moving a spare from the midpoint and changing the roll to 53.

1. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/2 eq:+0.347
Player: 60.75% (G:7.42% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 39.25% (G:11.52% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.333..+0.362) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq:+0.240 (-0.107)
Player: 57.96% (G:9.79% B:0.67%)
Opponent: 42.04% (G:13.93% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.228..+0.253) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 13/9 6/1* eq:+0.183 (-0.164)
Player: 57.04% (G:9.70% B:0.53%)
Opponent: 42.96% (G:15.66% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.169..+0.197) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--b-ECB-B-bC---a-bcbaa--:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O |
| X | | O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X X | | X O |
| O X X X | | X O O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 126 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/1* eq:+0.476
Player: 64.36% (G:7.03% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 35.64% (G:9.20% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (+0.462..+0.489) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/8 6/3 eq:+0.391 (-0.085)
Player: 62.31% (G:7.64% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 37.69% (G:10.81% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.379..+0.403) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Hit or not? 2

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