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A predictable surprise

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Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2024 10:17:58 -0800 (PST)
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Subject: A predictable surprise
From: pepste...@gmail.com (peps...@gmail.com)
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by: peps...@gmail.com - Wed, 7 Feb 2024 18:17 UTC

I really was quite surprised by XG's take here which is why I
rolled it out. The take is vindicated but it's extremely close,
so my surprise wasn't far wrong.
XG was vindicated by my terrible next shake of 53 but
I won the game anyway.
This money session against XG should impress both Tim
and Murat. After 4 games I'm leading by 6 points (12-6)
and with a PR of 3.74.

If I meet a random person who has played backgammon
and knows the rules, and I play an 11 point match against
them, I think the probability of me winning is > 99.99% but
I'm not sure.

Paul

XGID=aCCDBB--------A-------ced-:1:1:1:00:8:6:3:0:10

X:Daniel O:XG Roller+
Score is X:8 O:6. Unlimited Game, Jacoby Beaver
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| | | X |
| | | X X X | +---+
| | | X X X X X | | 2 |
| | | X X X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 53 O: 48 X-O: 8-6
Cube: 2, X own cube
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No redouble
Player Winning Chances: 78.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.91% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 78.21% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 21.79% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.562, Double=+1.128

Cubeful Equities:
No redouble: +0.785 (-0.202)
Redouble/Take: +0.987
Redouble/Pass: +1.000 (+0.013)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout:
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.002 (+0.783..+0.787)
Confidence Double: ± 0.004 (+0.984..+0.991)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 5.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Subject	Author
A predictable surprise	peps...@gmail.com