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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Which point do you make?

SubjectAuthor
* Which point do you make?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Which point do you make?Timothy Chow

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Which point do you make?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Which point do you make?
Date: Wed, 7 Feb 2024 09:30:03 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 7 Feb 2024 14:30 UTC

XGID=--BB-cDB----AAA----bBcdc--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Which point do you make?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Which point do you make?
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2024 17:41:19 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Feb 2024 22:41 UTC

XGID=--BB-cDB----AAA----bBcdc--:0:0:1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X | | O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O |
| X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 127 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 32

At first, I thought that this position had to do with giving O bad
fives to play. That's not irrelevant, but after looking at the
position more, I think it's that 13/10 12/10 just gives better
coverage of the board. If O rolls something nondescript like 32
next, XG still assesses O's position as being significantly worse
if X has played 13/10 12/10.

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 12/10 eq:+0.225
Player: 55.56% (G:10.61% B:0.40%)
Opponent: 44.44% (G:8.51% B:0.16%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.215..+0.236) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 14/11 13/11 eq:+0.099 (-0.126)
Player: 52.74% (G:8.33% B:0.30%)
Opponent: 47.26% (G:8.85% B:0.12%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.087..+0.111) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Next turn
---------

XGID=--BB-cDB---BA------bBcdc--:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X X | | X O X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O to play 32

1. XG Roller++ 4/1 3/1 eq:-0.166
Player: 45.14% (G:7.91% B:0.08%)
Opponent: 54.86% (G:7.87% B:0.21%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

XGID=--BB-cDB--B---A----bBcdc--:0:0:-1:32:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
| X | | O X O O O |
| | | O X O O O |
| | | O O O |
| | | O |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| | | X O |
| X X | | X O X X |
| X X | | X O X X |
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
Pip count X: 122 O: 102 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
O to play 32

1. XG Roller++ 4/1 3/1 eq:-0.267
Player: 42.92% (G:6.60% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 57.08% (G:9.05% B:0.28%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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