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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: 44 is usually lucky but this one's just average

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* 44 is usually lucky but this one's just averageTimothy Chow
`- Rollout: 44 is usually lucky but this one's just averageTimothy Chow

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44 is usually lucky but this one's just average

<uq8u5d$2ciu$4@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: 44 is usually lucky but this one's just average
Date: Sat, 10 Feb 2024 17:42:52 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 10 Feb 2024 22:42 UTC

XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O | +---+
| O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X O X X |
| X X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 44

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: 44 is usually lucky but this one's just average

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: 44 is usually lucky but this one's just average
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2024 10:20:38 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 13 Feb 2024 15:20 UTC

XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-b--bcbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O | +---+
| O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X O X X |
| X X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 101 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 44

We have a board advantage here, but O still has a four-point board,
so I didn't like leaving more shots than necessary. But XG wants to
leave a blot on the 16pt, which I still find surprising.

1. Rollout¹ 16/8 12/8 10/6 eq:+0.374
Player: 70.90% (G:9.32% B:0.39%)
Opponent: 29.10% (G:3.68% B:0.08%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.369..+0.379) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 12/4 10/2 eq:+0.308 (-0.066)
Player: 68.34% (G:7.50% B:0.19%)
Opponent: 31.66% (G:2.43% B:0.04%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.303..+0.313) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 10/2 eq:+0.294 (-0.080)
Player: 68.38% (G:5.71% B:0.24%)
Opponent: 31.62% (G:2.13% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.289..+0.299) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 16/8(2) eq:+0.282 (-0.092)
Player: 68.52% (G:7.92% B:0.22%)
Opponent: 31.48% (G:5.89% B:0.22%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.277..+0.287) - [0.0%]

5. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 11/7 10/6 eq:+0.267 (-0.107)
Player: 66.72% (G:7.63% B:0.26%)
Opponent: 33.28% (G:2.32% B:0.02%)
Confidence: ±0.005 (+0.262..+0.272) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-BBbBBB---AAA--bB-bc--bbb-:2:-1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O X O | | O O O O | +---+
| O X O | | O O O O | | 4 |
| | | O | +---+
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X X O X X |
| X X X | | X X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 101 O: 108 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 4, O own cube
X to play 44

1. Rollout¹ 16/8 12/8 10/6 eq:+0.309
Player: 68.62% (G:10.98% B:0.54%)
Opponent: 31.38% (G:6.43% B:0.18%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.303..+0.315) - [85.1%]

2. Rollout¹ 16/12(2) 10/2 eq:+0.305 (-0.004)
Player: 68.86% (G:5.35% B:0.14%)
Opponent: 31.14% (G:3.38% B:0.05%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.298..+0.311) - [14.9%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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