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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: PoH and then?

SubjectAuthor
* PoH and then?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: PoH and then?Timothy Chow

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PoH and then?

<uqdadk$1ihfq$2@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: PoH and then?
Date: Mon, 12 Feb 2024 09:36:36 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 12 Feb 2024 14:36 UTC

XGID=a---BaCAD--A-----fbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: PoH and then?

<uqifp7$2lm14$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: PoH and then?
Date: Wed, 14 Feb 2024 08:38:46 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 14 Feb 2024 13:38 UTC

XGID=a---BaCAD--A-----fbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O | | O O X X X |
| O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| 6 | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 134 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

After 7/5* 6/5, I thought I need to step up to the edge of the prime
with 22/21, but XG disagrees strongly.

1. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/5 eq:+0.615
Player: 62.40% (G:20.95% B:0.98%)
Opponent: 37.60% (G:11.83% B:0.64%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.602..+0.628) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 22/21 7/5* 6/5 eq:+0.452 (-0.163)
Player: 57.34% (G:18.96% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 42.66% (G:13.07% B:0.94%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.439..+0.465) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 23/22 7/5* 6/5 eq:+0.412 (-0.202)
Player: 55.74% (G:18.85% B:0.76%)
Opponent: 44.26% (G:12.96% B:0.53%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (+0.401..+0.424) - [0.0%]

4. Rollout¹ 22/21(2) 8/7 6/5* eq:+0.403 (-0.212)
Player: 57.38% (G:16.70% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 42.62% (G:15.23% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.016 (+0.386..+0.419) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=a---BaCAD--A----bdbbc-BAA-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O O O | | O O X X X |
| O O O | | O O X |
| O | | O |
| O | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | O | |
| X | | |
| X | | X | +---+
| X | | X X | | 2 |
| X X X | | X O X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 167 O: 136 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 11

1. Rollout¹ 22/21(2) 8/7 6/5* eq:-0.096
Player: 42.41% (G:11.02% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 57.59% (G:21.36% B:1.43%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.109..-0.083) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 8/5* 6/5 eq:-0.125 (-0.029)
Player: 40.30% (G:12.42% B:0.72%)
Opponent: 59.70% (G:20.53% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.138..-0.112) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: PoH and then?

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