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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next

I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next
Date: Tue, 13 Feb 2024 10:23:37 -0500
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by: Timothy Chow - Tue, 13 Feb 2024 15:23 UTC

XGID=--a-B-EBBb---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 140 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 17 Feb 2024 21:41 UTC

XGID=--a-B-EBBb---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

I decided to hit for tempo, which is not a completely crazy idea,
but O has a lot of hitting rolls regardless, and playing 6/2*/1 puts
one of our checkers out of play. By contrast, slotting 6/5 gains a
lot when it works.

1. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.255
Player: 46.03% (G:12.36% B:0.83%)
Opponent: 53.97% (G:28.35% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.265..-0.244) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:-0.408 (-0.153)
Player: 41.13% (G:10.98% B:0.46%)
Opponent: 58.87% (G:23.53% B:0.80%)
Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.423..-0.394) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=--a-B-E-Db---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X | | X X |
| O X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 112 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 6/2* 2/1 eq:-0.614
Player: 36.64% (G:9.25% B:0.41%)
Opponent: 63.36% (G:25.80% B:0.93%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.632..-0.596) - [75.6%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.622 (-0.009)
Player: 37.63% (G:9.50% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 62.37% (G:29.55% B:0.99%)
Confidence: ±0.018 (-0.640..-0.605) - [24.4%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=---aB-DBCb---B----cc-cAcA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O | | O O X O X |
| X O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X X | | X X |
| O X X | | X X O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 41

1. Rollout¹ 8/3* eq:-0.339
Player: 43.56% (G:11.67% B:0.57%)
Opponent: 56.44% (G:24.84% B:1.01%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.352..-0.327) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 24/20 6/5 eq:-0.382 (-0.043)
Player: 41.87% (G:10.30% B:0.52%)
Opponent: 58.13% (G:25.53% B:0.76%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.393..-0.372) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 24/20 8/7 eq:-0.385 (-0.046)
Player: 40.92% (G:9.68% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 59.08% (G:21.56% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.397..-0.373) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Subject	Author
I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next	Timothy Chow
Rollout: I sure hope O doesn't roll snake eyes next	Timothy Chow