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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Double from the bar?

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* Double from the bar?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Double from the bar?Timothy Chow

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Double from the bar?

<uraakm$j0hq$2@dont-email.me>

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Double from the bar?
Date: Fri, 23 Feb 2024 09:38:13 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Fri, 23 Feb 2024 14:38 UTC

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Double from the bar?

<urfiv1$1t3lr$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Double from the bar?
Date: Sun, 25 Feb 2024 09:30:57 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 25 Feb 2024 14:30 UTC

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 111 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

I badly misjudged this position and took this cube. But O has too
many vulnerable blots, and loses a ton of gammons.

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 71.08% (G:38.47% B:3.96%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.92% (G:6.26% B:0.18%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.25% (G:39.50% B:4.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.75% (G:6.61% B:0.21%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.861 (-0.139)
Double/Take: +1.376 (+0.376)
Double/Pass: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.852..+0.870)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.362..+1.390)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 1
---------

XGID=-BBaaBC-BC--a-----bd-d-b-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O X X | | X X O O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 114 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 67.78% (G:28.34% B:1.39%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.22% (G:6.85% B:0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.84% (G:30.86% B:1.57%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.16% (G:7.50% B:0.26%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.686 (-0.297)
Double/Take: +0.983
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.017)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.676..+0.695)
Confidence Double: ± 0.013 (+0.969..+0.996)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---------
Variant 2
---------

XGID=-BBa-BC-BCa-a-----bc-dab-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| O | | O O O O |
| O | | O O O |
| | | O O |
| | | O |
| | X | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X |
| X X | | X X X X |
| O O X X | | X X O X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 102 O: 105 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X on roll, cube action

Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 65.25% (G:34.32% B:2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.75% (G:7.40% B:0.21%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.31% (G:34.63% B:2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.69% (G:7.33% B:0.19%)

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.638 (-0.328)
Double/Take: +0.967
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.033)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.629..+0.647)
Confidence Double: ± 0.023 (+0.944..+0.990)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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