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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Hit?

SubjectAuthor
* Hit?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Hit?Timothy Chow

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Hit?

<urecbn$1l77g$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=13601&group=rec.games.backgammon#13601

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Hit?
Date: Sat, 24 Feb 2024 22:32:07 -0500
Organization: A noiseless patient Spider
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 25 Feb 2024 03:32 UTC

XGID=--a-cCB-CB-b-C---Babb-bb--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Hit?

<urne6t$3tkm6$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Hit?
Date: Wed, 28 Feb 2024 08:58:52 -0500
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 by: Timothy Chow - Wed, 28 Feb 2024 13:58 UTC

XGID=--a-cCB-CB-b-C---Babb-bb--:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 153 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

If X is going to leave a shot, then making the bar point is going to
be better than hitting. The question is whether X should leave a shot
at all. Although 8/5 is a bit ugly, I'm still a little surprised that
XG volunteers a shot here. See the variant for comparison, where I have
strengthened O's board and moved O's straggler back a pip.

1. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.667
Player: 66.07% (G:14.68% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 33.93% (G:10.67% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.654..+0.680) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 5/2* eq:+0.585 (-0.082)
Player: 63.75% (G:14.47% B:0.60%)
Opponent: 36.25% (G:10.91% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.013 (+0.571..+0.598) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.579 (-0.088)
Player: 63.50% (G:13.41% B:0.51%)
Opponent: 36.50% (G:9.82% B:0.28%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (+0.567..+0.591) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-a--cCB-CB-b-C---Babbbb---:1:1:1:21:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X X O | | O O O O |
| X X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| X | | X O | +---+
| O X X | | X X O | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 142 O: 158 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 21

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 eq:+0.520
Player: 61.55% (G:13.17% B:0.50%)
Opponent: 38.45% (G:10.64% B:0.33%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (+0.512..+0.528) - [58.3%]

2. Rollout¹ 9/7 8/7 eq:+0.518 (-0.001)
Player: 62.42% (G:12.10% B:0.49%)
Opponent: 37.58% (G:11.57% B:0.42%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.509..+0.528) - [41.7%]

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

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