novaBBS - rec.games.backgammon - Rollout: Too risky to hit?

Too risky to hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Too risky to hit?
Date: Mon, 11 Mar 2024 17:09:04 -0400
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by: Timothy Chow - Mon, 11 Mar 2024 21:09 UTC

XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O O X O |
| X O | | O O X O |
| | | O O |
| | | |
| | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | X |
| X | | X |
| O X O | | X X |
| O X O | | X X X X |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 128 O: 127 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 1
X to play 33

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Too risky to hit?

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
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Subject: Rollout: Too risky to hit?
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by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 16 Mar 2024 09:17 UTC

XGID=-A-B-ADbC---bB-a-b-ccBb---:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

It is indeed too risky to hit. Hitting would be indicated at gammon go,
but not for money or even DMP.

1. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 13/10(2) eq:+0.138
Player: 54.33% (G:5.94% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 45.67% (G:4.94% B:0.20%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (+0.128..+0.148) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 21/18(2) 8/5 6/3 eq:-0.043 (-0.181)
Player: 49.18% (G:7.99% B:0.21%)
Opponent: 50.82% (G:10.80% B:0.37%)
Confidence: ±0.011 (-0.054..-0.032) - [0.0%]

3. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/15* 8/5 eq:-0.074 (-0.213)
Player: 48.78% (G:17.11% B:0.68%)
Opponent: 51.22% (G:21.27% B:1.13%)
Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.087..-0.062) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

Klein bottle for rent -- inquire within.

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Rollout: Too risky to hit?

Subject	Author
Too risky to hit?	Timothy Chow
Rollout: Too risky to hit?	Timothy Chow