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interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pay now?

SubjectAuthor
* Pay now?Timothy Chow
`- Rollout: Pay now?Timothy Chow

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Pay now?

<ut3o41$2qpni$2@dont-email.me>

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https://www.novabbs.com/interests/article-flat.php?id=13620&group=rec.games.backgammon#13620

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Path: i2pn2.org!i2pn.org!eternal-september.org!feeder3.eternal-september.org!news.eternal-september.org!.POSTED!not-for-mail
From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Pay now?
Date: Sat, 16 Mar 2024 05:17:53 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sat, 16 Mar 2024 09:17 UTC

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

---
Tim Chow

Rollout: Pay now?

<utp7eo$c7d0$1@dont-email.me>

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From: tchow12...@yahoo.com (Timothy Chow)
Newsgroups: rec.games.backgammon
Subject: Rollout: Pay now?
Date: Sun, 24 Mar 2024 08:48:24 -0400
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 by: Timothy Chow - Sun, 24 Mar 2024 12:48 UTC

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----bbbba--:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 140 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

6/3 6/1 is terribly ugly, but I thought that O's board was too strong
to play 13/10 13/8. XG 3-ply agrees with 6/3 6/1, but a rollout
overturns that verdict. Evidently, O's blot in her board is enough
to swing the balance (see variant).

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.442
Player: 31.48% (G:12.31% B:0.15%)
Opponent: 68.52% (G:28.79% B:1.00%)
Confidence: ±0.009 (-0.451..-0.433) - [100.0%]

2. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.585 (-0.143)
Player: 28.35% (G:6.26% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 71.65% (G:30.07% B:1.03%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.595..-0.575) - [0.0%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

-------
Variant
-------

XGID=-CCB-bBb----bE-----cbbb---:1:1:1:53:0:0:0:0:10

Score is X:0 O:0. Unlimited Game
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O O O O |
| X | | O |
| X | | |
| X | | |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| | | X X | +---+
| O O | | X O X X X | | 2 |
| O O | | X O X X X | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 92 O: 144 X-O: 0-0
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 53

1. Rollout¹ 6/3 6/1 eq:-0.599
Player: 27.81% (G:6.71% B:0.03%)
Opponent: 72.19% (G:30.23% B:1.18%)
Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.609..-0.589) - [99.9%]

2. Rollout¹ 13/10 13/8 eq:-0.618 (-0.019)
Player: 26.88% (G:7.12% B:0.06%)
Opponent: 73.12% (G:30.85% B:1.10%)
Confidence: ±0.008 (-0.626..-0.611) - [0.1%]

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

---
Tim Chow

interests / rec.games.backgammon / Pay now?

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